Рав Авраам Шмулевич
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Below are the 10 most recent journal entries recorded in
avrom's LiveJournal:
| Thursday, May 30th, 2019 | | 10:44 pm |
Lack of Horizontal Ties among Regions Means Weakening of Vertical Ones between Them and Moscow Threa
Lack of Horizontal Ties among Regions Means Weakening of
Vertical Ones between Them and Moscow Threatens Country, Shmulyevich Says
Paul Goble
Staunton, May 30 – “Russia is very poorly administered,” Avraam Shmulyevich
says. “Horizontal ties are practically non-existent, and vertical ones are very
poor.” As a result, such systems can last a long time but then disappear
overnight because any weakening of the vertical ties means there is little to
hold the country together.
That is what
was the case in 1917 and again in 1991, the Israeli specialist on the North
Caucasus says; and as a result, “the Russian Federation could fall apart in
three days.” Because that is so, the regions and republics are
increasingly having to think about how they will cope and what they will do in
that event (afterempire.info/2019/05/30/hronika-imperii/).
Because
of his expertise, Shmulyevich develops this point by discussing the Caucasus.
He suggests that “over the post-Soviet years, the Caucasus has been transformed
into an ordinary colony,” one that is costly and difficult for the center to
administer. Moscow lacks the skills to do so. As a result, it is “the source of
turbulence for the entire Russian Federation.”
“Mentally,” the analyst says, the North Caucasus has “already distanced itself
from Russia and Russia from it. Therefore, Moscow most likely in the coming years
will simply throw off it as ballast” holding Russia back much as the West
European colonial powers let their colonies go in the 1950s and 1960s.
The
question arises, however, “will this be a good thing for the Caucasus and for
the world?” Could it take the form of normal nation states? Of dictatorships
like Chechnya already is? Or a region of Islamist terrorism and
radicalism? Or could it consist of all these things competing among
themselves and drawing in outside powers?
According
to Shmulyevich, “the Circassians are the only people of the caucaus among whom
there is an ideological system that can serve as an alternative to Islam … the
ideology of Khabze.” But within the divided Circassian nation, that
ideology is now locked in a competition with Islamism.
“Any
people which exists under a colonial yoke degrades,” the Israeli analyst says.
“The North Caucasus and all its peoples have lived in three empires” and as a
result various “unhealthy phenomena” have emerged. But these phenomena have not
completely destroyed the underlying cultures of these peoples.
Many of
them have healthy elements within them, Shmulyevich says. One mustn’t
feel that everything is bad but rather work to help the health elements defeat
the unhealthy ones. “There are all kinds of possibilities to do this, and
that requires in the first instance to remember that the first source of all
the problems is that the Caucasus became a Russian colony.”
“Anti-colonial revolutions both in European colonies and in the Russian Empire
in the 19th and 20th centuries were headed by members of the intelligentsia and
businessmen who went to study and make careers and money in the metropolitan
center and abroad and then returned to their
Motherlands.”
For
centuries, he continues, “the Caucasus peoples have suffered many catastrophes,
attacks and conquests. Russian colonial rule is only one of them.” Russia has
been and remains “a disintegrating factor,” and there is no reason to think
that the region will recover quickly or easily from its occupation.
One may
certainly quibble with Shmulyevich about varius aspects of the situation in the
North Caucasus, but his insight on the relationship between vertical and
horizontal ties is fundamental and should become the basis of analysis of the
Russian situation not only by Western observers but by participants of all
kinds within the Russian Federation.
Unless
Russia develops more horizontal ties among its regions, any weakening of the
vertical ones between the regions and the center will inevitably call the
territorial integrity of the country into question. Those who think that
vertical ties will be enough have been proved wrong before and are quite likely
to be proved wrong again.
https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/05/lack-of-horizontal-ties-among-regions.html
Window on Eurasia -- New Series, May 30, 2019 | | Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 | | 7:53 pm |
Putin Preparing for Third World War to Force Ukraine and West to Make Some Hard Choices, Shmulyevich Перевод и изложение Paul Goble моей статьи Paul Goble
Staunton, December 1 – Vladimir Putin is actively preparing for a third world war, Avraam Shmulyevich says, one in advance of which Ukraine and the West must decide whether Kyiv is “an ally of the West or part of the Putin system.” Indeed, the Kremlin leader’s actions are designed to show the West just how expensive it will be for it to support Ukraine against him.
The Israeli political analyst makes those comments in the course of an interview with Taavi Minnik, a journalist for Tallinn’s Postimees newspaper, ones in which he makes clear that Putin is not planning for “’the small victorious war’” many talk about but rather about something more (rus.postimees.ee/6466473/avraam-shmulevich-putin-zhazhdet-revansha).
Putin is very much in control however much the situation in Russia has deteriorated, Shmulyevich says. “There is no opposition in Russia; all opposition figures (except perhaps Navalny) are either in the West or more likely under the control of the FSB. The West isn’t supporting any real opposition or spending money to oppose Russian propaganda.”
Moreover, and far from the least important, the Israeli analyst says, “Putin has a very powerful repressive apparatus. In fact, nothing threatens him.”
“The West’s problem is that it doesn’t listen to Putin who with remarkable candor says what he wants,” Shmulyevich says. He said it already in Munich: he is seeking to reestablish the Russian Empire. Putin wants the greatness of Russia as he imagines it at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20 centuries.”
According to the Israeli analyst, “Putin wants to return what was lost with the disintegration of the Soviet Union. He has pursued that goal through his entire period in office, building up a repressive apparatus and a military and putting the economy on military rails.” Russia’s strength has grown but the standard of living of the Russian people has not.
“In order to return to the status of empire, Russia must recover Ukraine. Putin has more than once said that Ukraine is a state that should arose as a result of a mistake and which should not exist because Ukrainians are part of the Russian people.” Putin in Crimea and the Donbass has used a strategy of “creeping annexation.’”
Given this goal, Shmulyevich says, “Putin doesn’t need ‘a small victorious war’ but a big war which will give him control over Europe and the world.” (emphasis supplied)
What has just happened in the Kerch Strait raises the stakes and show how far Putin is now prepared to go, the analyst continues. “Never before has the Russian regular army opened fire on Ukrainian forces. The transfer of Crimea took place without a single shot being fired. And Russia had denied that its forces are in the Donbass.”
Now, however, “Putin has attempted to annex the Sea of Azov de facto and for the first time has opened fire on Ukrainian ships in international waters.” Today, “the question, ‘Is NATO prepared to defend the Kerch Straits?’ is equivalent to the question ‘Is NATO prepared to die for Narva?”
To avoid disaster, Shmulyevich says, “there must be a clear reaction and not just words expressing concern.”
Ukrainian elites and Ukrainian society are not ready to fight an all-out war with Russia, he adds. They have used various euphemisms to avoid facing up to the sweeping nature of Moscow’s aggression. That has had the effect of only leading Putin to conclude that he can go further and further.
Putin’s aggression now echoes Hitler’s in the years before World War II, and the response of many in Europe to it now echoes the reaction of many Europeans in that period as well. Everyone must understand that “Putin is preparing for a third world war and for revenge,” Shmulyevich says.
“Ukraine must define itself: either it is an ally of the West or it is part of Putin’s system. To continue to sit on two stools at the same time is no longer possible. I very much doubt,” the Israeli analyst concludes, “that European politicians understand this truth” and the stake not only for Ukraine but for themselves as well.
As long as they don’t, he suggests, Putin will continue his advance, pocketing anything he can. http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/12/putin-preparing-for-third-world-war-to.html | | Friday, June 29th, 2018 | | 1:09 am |
Paul Goble
Staunton, June 28 – Irakly Kobakhidze, the speaker of the Georgian parliament, said in Washington this week that Russia continues to threaten the national independence of his country, maintains its occupation forces on Georgian territory and has refused to respond to Tbilisi’s efforts to find common ground (apsny.ge/2018/pol/1530210649.php).
Because of this threat, Georgia has been pursuing membership in the Western alliance; but as Vladimir Putin has demonstrated again and again, he will use all means, including invasion and occupation, to prevent that from happening by creating a situation in which some NATO member states will be leery of becoming involved.
In a personal communication to this writer, Israeli analyst Avraham Shmulyevich says that recent statements coming out of South Ossetia and recent Russian actions in support of the Armenians in Georgia’s Javakhetia region suggest that Putin may in fact be ready to threaten or even carry out the dismemberment of Georgia by cutting that country in half.
If one looks at a map of Georgia, one can see that the Russian unrecognized client state of South Ossetia looks like a dagger pointed directly at the Georgian capital, Shmulyevich points out. For confirmation of this, he points to a series of maps of the area available online at commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Trialet_Ossetia.png.
Any further expansion of Ossetian control, something that could only be achieved with the strength of Russian arms, would threaten Tbilisi even more directly. But as Shmulyevich notes, there is an even greater danger to Georgia in evidence, one that reflects the recent changes in Armenia.
That is in the Javakhetia region in southern Georgia, a region populated largely by ethnic Armenians and led by people who were closely associated with the ancient regime in Yerevan. They are thus more disposed to follow Moscow’s demands than the Pashinyan government and could be set against Tbilisi as well.
Were Moscow and its agents to stir up trouble in Javakhetia, Shmulyevich says, that would create a dagger from the south that would almost meet the Ossetian dagger from the north and cut the Republic of Georgia into two parts. Even the threat that Moscow could do that must be worrisome to Georgia and its supporters in the West.
Obviously, this is an argument based on capabilities rather than on knowledge of intentions; but it is not so far-fetched that it should be dismissed out of hand, as some may be inclined to do. Instead, it could become a scenario for yet another Putinist hybrid war and for the same purpose as in Ukraine, to block a country that wants to turn to the West from doing so.
https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/06/is-moscow-planning-to-try-to-cut.html | | Tuesday, April 17th, 2018 | | 5:29 pm |
Israeli Analyst Says Putin Like Hitler of the 1930s But Not Yet Prepared for a General War Paul Goble
Staunton, April 16 – Vladimir Putin’s actions “resemble those of the early Adolf Hitler,” Rabbi Avraam Shmulyevich says. And like the Nazi leader, the Kremlin boss is testing his forces in smaller conflicts and seeking to raise a generation of people who are prepared to die for him and his ideas.
“One can compare [Putin] with the early Hitler of the 1930s,” Shmulyevich says on Espresso television, when the Nazi leader “step by step increased the military capacity of the Wehrmacht, carried out ‘pilot’ steps in Spain, Austria and Czechoslovakia and then began a big war.”
“This in principle is what Putin said openly that he intends to do,” the Israeli expert continues.
At the same time, Shmulyevich says he is “convinced that for the time being Putin ‘will not cross a red line’ in relations with the West. It is possible there will be some local clashes” in which he will test his army against the American one but that the Kremlin leader will always pull back before things get out of hand. https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.co.il/2018/04/israeli-analyst-says-putin-like-hitler.html
| | Friday, February 9th, 2018 | | 3:56 pm |
The Terror in Daghestan has Begun to Spread – And Will Last as Long as Putin Does. The Terror in Daghestan has Begun to Spread – And Will Last as Long as Putin
Does.
The
country has entered a new 1937, the beginning of terror. “Today Russia is ruled
by Chekists … They even call themselves that. But Chekists do not know how to do
anything but arrest people.” That is what it was established to do and that is
what it is doing now.
“In
contrast to Perm, Tver or Sakhalin,” Shmulyevich continues, “Daghestan is viewed
as a colony of Russia as a certain alien place and therefore everything which is
taking place there is examined with particular interest – although in this
specific case, there is no difference between Daghestan and Kirov oblast or
Magadan.”
But there is one
difference that Moscow appears to have forgotten: unlike in these other places,
in Daghestan, there is a tradition of partisan war, of going into the forests
and fighting back. And consequently, if Moscow
continues to repress people in Daghestan, it is more than likely that this
tradition will return to the fore.
But
at the same time Moscow is arresting people in Daghestan, Shmulyevich points
out, “arrests and even murders in the ruling stratum are occurring throughout
the entire country” – in Tatarstan, in Ingushetia, in Stavropol and in
Kaliningrad. And that means something else: it has begun and will continues as
long as this [Putin] system exists.”
| | Monday, January 8th, 2018 | | 3:00 am |
Iran is an Islamic Variant of the Soviet Union at Its End, Shmulyevich Says Iran is an Islamic Variant of the Soviet Union at Its End, Shmulyevich SaysPaul GobleStaunton, January 7 – Iran today resembles the USSR in its final days, “an ideological regime in collapse;” but the Iranian protesters are more radically inclined against the ayatollahs than were Russians against the communists and also more willing than Russians to bear their share of responsibility for the regime they hope to overthrow, Avraam Shmulevich says.In an article on the After Empire portal and in an interview with Radio Liberty, the head of Israel’s Eastern Partnership Institute argues that is the case even if the current upsurge in protests in Iran is put down for a time (afterempire.info/2018/01/04/night-revolution/ and svoboda.org/a/28956976.html).Authoritarian regimes “do not fall by themselves,” and they do not fall when they first face public opposition, the commentator says. Instead, they collapse as wave after wave of opposition appears and as their opponents become more radical in their criticisms and in their demands.That was true of the Russian Empire and of the Soviet Union, and it is very much true of Iran now, Shmulyevich says. “If in 2009, protesters [there] demanded honest elections; now, no one talks about elections and the chief slogan is death: ‘Death to Khomeini,’ ‘Death to the Islamic Revolution!’ and so on.”Like their Russian and Soviet precursors, the Iranian people see that the regime ruling over them oppresses the ordinary people while allowing “the golden youth to what it wants.” They see corruption all around them, with the rulers enriching themselves while the people suffer ever more.All this, he continues, is very similar to what was the case in the Soviet Union in the 1980s.But there are some big differences, Shmulyevich says; and those deserve to be attended to because they show that the Iranians in the streets are more angry and more committed to real change than were the supporters of perestroika at the end of Soviet times.“In Iran, there is a real demand for democracy. People who are now going into the streets of Iranian cities really want freedom and really want the establishment of a normal democratic society. In Russia, there [was and] is no such demand.” Instead, there is a demand for another but “good tsar” to rule over the people.The Iranians protesting now are talking “precisely about the complete destruction of the existing system. One of the slogans [they are marching under holds] ‘we were wrong when we made the Islamic Revolution.’ Such repentance and recognition of their own errors and that it necessary to go in another way does not exist in Russia now and did not in the early 1990s.”What is happening in Iran now is a genuinely popular rising. No outside forces can get hundreds of thousands of people to go into the streets, although the current Iranian regime like all authoritarian ones elsewhere “accuses external forces” in order to try to mobilize patriotic feelings on its behalf.Another way Iran is both similar to and different from the late Soviet Union is that in Iran today there are “quite powerful ethnic conflicts” and the existence of “at a minimum three national liberation movements – the Kurds, the Beluchi, and the Arabs” – not to mention the Azerbaijanis. And the Iranian demonstrators can expect to gain the backing of many in the outside world not only because of their commitments to democracy and freedom, Shmulyevich says, but also because “in Iran is the very lowest level of anti-Semitism among the populations in the Middle East.”https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.co.il/2018/01/iran-is-islamic-variant-of-soviet-union.html | | Wednesday, January 3rd, 2018 | | 4:44 pm |
Iranian Protests Resonating in Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia, Shmulyevich Says Paul Goble
Staunton, December 31 – The outcome of the events in Iran remains far from clear, with the possibilities ranging from the restoration of the power of the existing government to its weakening to its complete overthrow, Avraam Shmulyevich says, with all but the first certain to have a dramatic impact in the post-Soviet space.
According to Shmulyevich, “civil society in Iran is more mature than it is in Russia. There, there is a real demand for democracy.” And that in turn means that few Russians are likely to be inspired by the Iranian protesters and go into the streets with the goal of overthrowing the existing system.
But that doesn’t mean the Iranian events don’t matter in Russia and especially to the Putin regime. On the one hand, the current Tehran government is one of Russia’s few allies in the world and that is a matter of concern for Putin. “Not that Russian television isn’t saying anything about the events in Iran, and this is very indicative,” the analyst continues.
The Iranian events will affect “not only the Russian Federation,” of course. They will resonate in Central Asia and in the South Caucasus, “above all in Azerbaijan.” If the ayatollahs fall, that will lead people in both of those places and in the North Caucasus to think about what they might do to get rid of their current rulers.
“Such thoughts may arise also in other Islamic regions of Russia, above all in Tatarstan, and this may accelerate the process of the separation of national borderlands from Russia,” Shmulyevich argues.
He continues: “If the Iranian revolution turns out to be successful, then Russia will lose those remnants of its influence which it has in Syria and in the region as a whole. This will be a strong shock on Putin’s self-esteem and his foreign policy because the only ally he has is Iran.” Moreover, a change in Iran “will strengthen Turkey’s position in its talks with Russia.”
Moreover, if the Iranian events produce regime change there, this could “push Russia’s Muslim regions, above all in the North Caucasus, to move more actively toward independence and threaten the pro-Russian regimes in Central Asia,” as well as creating “serious problems” for Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan. | | Sunday, September 10th, 2017 | | 1:31 am |
Window on Eurasia -- New Series_ North Caucasus Republics Could Flourish on Their Own, Israeli Polit
Paul Goble
Staunton, September 8 – Often observers look at the divisions among Circassians and even within the Circassian national movement and conclude that they are no threat to anyone, Avraam Shmulyevich says. But they forget that almost all national movements including the ones which have become successful have begun with such problems.
But those more closely involved, including in the first instance the government and special services of the Russian Federation, the Israeli analyst says, are very much frightened by that prospect and have deployed many forces to disorganize and suppress Circassian activism wherever it manifests itself (afterempire.info/2017/09/07/circassian/).
“The Circassians,” Shmulyevich continues, “are the only people for whom the Caucasus War has still not ended, the only people who not only seriously suffered in the course of this war but for whom the negative consequences of defeat are still important and more than that catastrophic.”
Their “main problem is that 80 percent of the Circassians to this day are in exile and being subject to active assimilation,” but in addition, those who remain in “their historical motherland, the North Caucasus, “are divided among six administrative units” something that represents a barrier to their coming together.
Moreover, “even in their own ‘national’ formations, the Circassians are deprived of the opportunity to freely develop their culture and define by themselves the path of their national development.” Moscow’s complaint that the Circassians talk “’too much’” about the past is baseless given that Russian forces expelled “more than 95 percent” of them.
That action, along with the murderous campaign and discrimination the Russian state imposed before and after 1864, qualifies as a genocide. That is how most international legal scholars view it, and it is so much a part of the Circassian national identity that few Circassians feel the need to articulate it on a regular basis, Shmulyevich says.
Moscow is not willing to discuss any of this. Nor is it willing to allow Circassians from the Middle East to return to the North Caucasus. The reason is simple, he says. “The arrival of tens and then hundreds of thousands of citizens with experience in more democratic states and having foreign citizenship and thus immunity … is a mortal threat to the Putin order.”
But Moscow is not content just to keep the Circassians from returning. Because of its fears, the Kremlin has taken steps to completely control Circassian organizations inside the Russian Federation, groups that “imitate activity and try to distract young people from the main Circassian problem.” They have been largely successful in “’setting the tone’” in these groups.
Today, however, Shmulyevich argues, “the situation is changing; and the meaninglessness of these organization has become evident to many Circassians. Circassian young people are coming to back the idea of the need for the creation of an international organization based on the principles of international law.”
The Israeli scholar says that in his opinion, such an organization “will appear in the coming years.”
In addition, he points out, “the Russian special services are devoting colossal efforts for the neutralization of the Circassian question. But they are not all-powerful. Even the powerful Soviet KGB was not in a position to control a multi-million-strong people; and its successors are weaker by an order of magnitude.”
All these things mean, Shmulyevich concludes, that Circassian problems are only going to intensify. As one Circassian activist told him, he reports, “God alone knows how all this will end, but there isn’t going to be any peace in the Caucasus.” And that is something that many in Moscow already have many reasons to fear. | | Friday, July 28th, 2017 | | 6:17 pm |
Putin Preparing to Reprise Stalin’s Winter War in Finland Strategy Against Ukraine, Shmulyevich Says Paul Goble
Staunton, July 28 – One of the most important features of Moscow’s behavior but one that at the same time Western leaders typically fail to recognize and incorporate in their responses is that the Kremlin employs regularly employs the same strategy and tactics again and again albeit in new times and in new locations.
Indeed, it all too often seems to be the case that Russia’s relationship with the West is best captured by what was said of the Bourbons two centuries ago: the Russians have never forgotten anything that they have done before and the West has never learned anything from that all too obvious and heinous historical record.
That makes analyses which draw a parallel between what the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union did in the past with what Putin is doing now especially valuable because if the West recognizes the first steps of what is likely Moscow’s strategy, it will be in a far better position to counter it.
This is something that at least some Ukrainian officials understand, Shmulyevich says, because they recognize that “Russia has frequently used such a scheme in the past,” most prominently in the case of the Winter War. Now, he and they think, there is a strong possibility of another “Winter War” action but this time against Ukraine and in the summer.
In 1940, “Stalin declared that a communist uprising against ‘the Whites’ had occurred.” It then announced “the formation of ‘the Finnish Democratic Republic,’ headed by Finnish communist Otto Kukusinen.” This republic, like Malorossiya, was “proclaimed on Finnish territories occupied by Soviet forces.
“The USSR recognized it and to assist ‘the Finnish brothers,’ the Red Army launched an attack along the entire front from the Gulf of Finland to the Barents Sea,” Shmulyevich reminds. Earlier, during the Russian Civil War, Moscow used a similar tactic against Ukraine and Georgia, ultimately incorporating them into the Soviet Union.
Now, “the Donets Army created by Moscow is again trying to liquidate the independence of Ukraine,” the Israeli analyst says. And “in exactly the same way.” And that must be a matter of concern because in all previous cases, “when Moscow applied this strategy, the West did not provide real military and even diplomatic help to the independent states which had become the victim of Russian aggression.”
“Three Russian divisions were recently brought up to [Ukraine’s] borders,” and the question arises: “What could stop Putin from a full-scale attack?” NATO countries “certainly do not want to intervene militarily. [And] even the answer to the question ‘Will NATO die for Narva?” up to now is not clear.”
But what is clear, Shmulyevich says, is that the Western alliance will not intervene on Ukraine’s behalf not least because Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Moreover, its forces are much reduced from two decades ago, and the alliance would need “a minimum of 14 to 18 days” to introduce forces. “By that time, Russian forces would reach the Dnipr.”
Consequently, he continues, “even if NATO would like to intervene, it would not be able to stop the advance of the Russians.” It might introduce more sanctions but that won’t frighten the Kremlin or stop the Russian advance. Given that Kyiv is only about 300 kilometers from the Russian border, such a strike could allow Moscow to install a comprador regime there.
“Putin – and he has said this himself – has an idee fixe about the restoration of the borders of the USSR,” just as “his idol Stalin had a dream about the restoration of the borders of the Russian Empire of 1914.” And thus “Malorossiya” should “disturb not only Ukrainians but all the neighbors of the Russian Federation.”
An article in the Moscow newspaper Vzglyad, Shmulyevich says, suggests what may be ahead and against which Ukrainians will have to fight with relatively few allies unless the scope of the danger is recognized in Western capitals and a more forceful policy is articulated and put in place.
In that article, ominously titled ‘Ukraine is Fated Again to Become Malorossiya,” the author says that “Russia is conducting a struggle for Ukraine not with the West … [but] with Kyiv. No one knows how much time it will take to transform Ukraine into Malorossiya – three years, five or even ten. But it inevitably will become Malorossiya and htne part of a single Great Russia” (vz.ru/politics/2017/7/18/879201.html).
Shmulyevich notes “history warns that the essence of the Russian Empire hasn’t changed … Whether the proclamation of ‘Malorossiya’ will be the beginning of the realization of the tested old scenario of imperial expansion depends in the first instance on whether the states under threat … can mobilize and mobilize the support of the free world.”
In the first Winter War, the Finns supported by volunteers from Estonia and other countries fought the Soviet Union to a draw; in the second, Shmulyevich concludes, whose first “shots” have already been fired, the Ukrainians are likely to be forced to try to achieve the same outcome in the same way. http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.co.il/2017/07/putin-preparing-to-reprise-stalins.html | | Friday, July 12th, 2013 | | 11:59 am |
Пол Гобл опубликовал сокр. перевод моей статьи Кавказский взгляд на уход России. Кровавый прогноз Я здесь охарактеризован как Israeli analyst Avraam Shmulyevich, one of the closest and most thoughtful observers of events in the North Caucasus - приятно, не скрою. Thursday, July 11, 2013
Window on Eurasia: Most Ingushes Think North Caucasus Will Gain Independence, Ingush Historian Says
Paul Goble Staunton, July 11 – Although fewer than one percent of Ingushes are now involved with the underground militants, approximately half of all Ingushes are certain that their republic and others in the North Caucasus will eventually be independent but at the same time fear that the process will be long and bloody, according to an Ingush historian now living in Western Europe. In an interview with Israeli analyst Avraam Shmulyevich, one of the closest and most thoughtful observers of events in the North Caucasus, the unnamed historian, who received his education in the Russian Federation but now lives abroad, described the hopes and fears of his nation regarding the immediate future (apn.ru/publications/article29585.htm). “Everyone knows that Russia will go, all have heard the stories of elders about prophecies [in that regard]. Now these prophesies are being realized. Those who think that way only guess what and how quickly.” Of course, “there are many who don’t believe that; they didn’t believe in the disintegration of the USSR either and they were mistaken. It will be the same this time around. ( Read more... ) |
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