Революция в Египте инспирирована разведкой и военными? Created 2007-04-04 17:05
SECRET
Embassy Cairo¶1. (C) Summary: In a recent meeting with poloff, XXXXXXXXXXXX parliamentarian XXXXXXXXXXXX discussed presidential son Gamal Mubarak's possible succession of his father, and opined that
Gamal increasingly views Minister of Defense Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and EGIS head Omar Suleiman as a threat to his presidential ambitions. XXXXXXXXXXXX alleged that
Tantawi recently told him, in confidence, of his deepening frustration with Gamal. End summary.
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GAMAL ANGLING TO "GET RID" OF HIS COMPETITION
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¶2. (S) On March 29, XXXXXXXXXXXX noted to poloff his assessment that the recently approved constitutional amendments package is largely aimed at ensuring Gamal Mubarak's succession of his father, and "a more controllable, stable political scene when he does take the reins." Opining that "Gamal and his clique" are becoming more confident in the inevitability of Gamal's succession, and are now angling to remove potential "stumbling blocks," XXXXXXXXXXXX said that speculation among Cairo's elite is that
there could be a cabinet reshuffle as soon as May or June, in which Minister of Defense Tantawi and/or EGIS head Omar Suleiman would be replaced. "Those two are increasingly viewed as a threat by Gamal and those around him," and thus Gamal is reportedly pushing Mubarak to get them out of the way, so they "could not pose any problems" in the event of a succession. XXXXXXXXXXXX speculated that "hitches" to a Gamal succession could occur if Mubarak died before installing his son: "Gamal knows this, and so wants to stack the deck in his favor as much as possible now, while Mubarak is firmly in control, just in case his father drops dead sooner rather than later."
¶3. (S) XXXXXXXXXXXX said XXXXXXXXXXXX had commented to him in a recent private meeting that, "he has had it 'up to here' with Gamal and his cronies, and the tremendous corruption they are facilitating." "XXXXXXXXXXXX told me he is having trouble sleeping at night," he continued, "and that he cannot stand what has happened to the country, and what may yet happen to the country."
Disappointed by the recent constitutional amendments, and skeptical about the will of either Mubarak or Gamal to push forward meaningful political reforms, XXXXXXXXXXXX said he viewed a post-Mubarak military coup as "the best possible way out for Egypt ... we are in a terrible spot, and that is the best of all the bad options available." (Note: XXXXXXXXXXXX provided no further details about a possible coup scenario, and appeared to simply be theorizing about the future. To date, we have not heard other interlocutors speculate about a possible coup option. End note).