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[Sep. 14th, 2009|03:15 pm] |
This summer likely marked the end of the recession and the economy should expand in the second half of this year. A wide array of data supports this view. However, payrolls are still shrinking at a rapid pace, even though the momentum of job losses has slowed in the past few months.
...In the face of high and rising unemployment, delinquencies and foreclosures are showing no sign of turning around
...Meanwhile, manufacturing is also beginning to show signs of life, helped particularly by a rebound in motor vehicle production.
Машины, что должны были быть проданы осенью, купило и подарило государство этим летом. Дома, что на балансах банков сидели, когда-нибудь пойдут на продажу, или на слом, не важно, и то и другое потребует переоценки состояния банков.
http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2009/janet_yellen0914.html
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update
Several recent sources of strength are likely to wane as we head into next year. Cash-for-clunkers and the first-time-homebuyer tax credit have both shifted demand forward, increasing sales today at the expense of sales tomorrow. Neither of these programs can be repeated with any real hope of achieving anywhere near the same effect: The more demand you steal from the future, the less future demand there is for you to steal. The general tax cuts and government spending increases included in this year’s fiscal stimulus package won’t have their peak impact on the level of GDP until sometime in 2010, but their peak impact on the growth of GDP has come and gone; the fiscal stimulus continues to drive GDP upward, compared with what it would otherwise have been, but the increments to GDP are beginning to shrink.
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