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Поживём, увидим. [Jan. 6th, 2010|10:23 am]
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...but I do want to give one location-specific example of where I think this trend toward the degradation of the Nation-State construct will be especially severe: India. No, I don't think India will collapse (though there will be plenty of stories of woe), nor that the state government that occupies most of the geographic territory of "India" will collapse (note that careful wording). Rather, I think that the trend for a disconnection between any abstract notion of "Nation" and a unitary state in India will become particularly pronounced over the course of 2010. This is already largely apparent in India, but look for it to become more so. While Indian business and economy will fare decently well in 2010 from an international trade perspective, the real story will be a rising failure of this success to be effectively distributed by the government outside of a narrow class of urban middle class. It will instead be a rising connectivity and self-awareness of their situation among India's rural poor, resulting in an increasing push for localized self-sufficiency and resiliency of food production (especially the "tipping" of food forests and perennial polycultures), that will most begin to tear at the relevancy of India's central state government.

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