Конференция в Копенгагене Я подписался участвовать в ответах на вопросы журналистов по поводу изменения климата во время конференции. Это надо сидеть два часа в день возле компьютера и отвечать на вопросы.
Сегодня задали интересный вопрос, на который я даже смог найти правильный ответ:
Question: On Tuesday, US climate envoy Todd Stern said, "Let's just be mindful of the fact that for most of the 200 years since the Industrial Revolution, people were blissfully ignorant of the fact that emissions caused a greenhouse effect. It’s a relatively recent phenomenon."
1) When did people stop being "blissfully ignorant of the fact that emissions caused a greenhouse effect"?
2) What percentage of historical US and global emissions has happened since we stopped being "blissfully ignorant"?
Ответ я нашел с помощью одной хорошей базы данных у проверенных (не Английских) ученых из ПНАЛ. США держит 23% от общих выбросов СО2 (217 Pg или 10^15 грамм) после 1970 и 30 до
Ok the global emissions before 1970 is
~111 Pg and USA is ~36Pg or 32%
Since 1970 were emitted
217 Pg and 50 Pg or ~23% is from USA
Полтора часа потратил пересчитывая, что бы не ошибиться...
А в это время какой то мудак, только что закончивший Беркли (ой я вся теку) ответил:
(1) As early as 1827, the French mathematician first raised the issue of greenhouse effect. Then by the turn of the century, Swedish chemist Arrhenius started raising the potential warming consequence of fossil-based CO2 emissions. This was roughly 50 years after the industrial revolution. But it was not until 1958 that the build-up of atmospheric CO2 concentrations was first revealed by US scientist Keeling. (See, for example,
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/node/1595.) And it took another 20 years or so before the notion of CO2-induced global warming start to take hold. Yet because of the inherent noise at varying time scales in the climate system, it was very difficult to discern the global warming signal from natural climate variations, until say, the 1990s. So, in a sense, we have been "blissfully ignorant" for some 140 years since the industrial revolution. And we have been complacent in addressing the problem until recently.
(2) Suppose that we stopped being "blissfully ignorant" by 1990, then the cumulative global CO2 emissions prior to 1990 is roughly equal to the cumulative CO2 emissions between 1990 and now. I don't have the solid numbers with me, but this is a ball-park estimate. (See
http://www.climateshifts.org/?p=492 for the post-1990 emissions, and Fig. 4 of
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-04-074.pdf for the emission plot between 1900 and 1990).
David Chock, PhD
Environmental and Sustainability Scientist
Presently unaffiliated
Чтоб он работы не нашёл. Француза звали Йосеф Фурье, который про трансформацию Фурье.
Вот же мудак этот Давид Чок (Чок на иврите это подсос бензина в матор в старых машинах). Он значит всё знает, ссука. Из за таких мудил народ не верит что человечество изменяет окр. мир.
Update вернули вопрос и я на него корявенько ответил:
Firstly, about the time when people started to think about green house effect.
First, who mentioned this effect was French mathematician Joseph Fourier in ~1840. Than Arrhenius published paper in 1896, Arrhenius Svante, 1896. On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground. Philosophical Magazine ser. 5, vol. 41, 237–276.
However, in resent time awareness started in early 1980, as far as I know in the seventies scientist were afraid of global cooling. So, the question about start of green house effect of CO2 on the atmosphere is pretty personal.
Secondly, Let's move to the facts, that can be calculated (I'm better in calculation than in history). I took dataset of CO2 emissions from 1751 till 2006. The dataset was calculated by Oak Ridge National Lab, and I think it's pretty accurate. From the 1751 till 1970 were emitted ~111 Pg C (1 Pg is 10^15 g) and USA's part is ~36 Pg or 32%. Since 1970 were emitted 217 Pg and 50 Pg or ~23% is from US. So, based on the ORNL dataset the historical percentage is about 23% of total emissions of CO2.
Hope is help.