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Wednesday, January 29th, 2014

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    5:00a
    Kenya under the microscope
    Occasionally, parents really do know best: When Tavneet Suri first started taking economics as a middle-school student in Nairobi, Kenya, she disliked it. But her father would not let her drop the course.

    “I don’t care if you get a C,” she recalls him saying. “It’s good for you to try new things.” 

    How right he was: Suri took the course, did well, and by high school, “Economics was my favorite subject.” Today, she is an accomplished development economist at the MIT Sloan School of Management whose intensive, on-the-ground studies have produced significant findings about Kenya’s economy and politics.

    Suri, who was granted tenure earlier this year, conducts three main strands of research. The best-known concerns the use of M-PESA, a text-based “mobile money” system that lets Kenyans borrow and share risk with others more easily, smoothing out income fluctuations in a heavily agricultural society.


    Tavneet Suri Photo: Bryce Vickmark

    Suri has also conducted extensive studies of economic development in African countries including Ghana, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone, often focusing on the adoption of agricultural technologies. And as part of her rapidly expanding research portfolio, Suri is now delving into political issues, including research on ethnic favoritism in politics and an ambitious, large-scale study of voter participation in Kenya’s new electoral system.

    That current work may be a departure from her previous studies in applied economics, but also serves as a reminder that, indeed, it’s good to try new things.

    ‘Destiny’ was MIT

    Kenya, like some other East African countries, has had a South Asian community since the time of British colonial rule. Suri is a fourth-generation Kenyan: Her great-great-uncle emigrated from what was then India (now part of Pakistan) for work building roads and railways in British-controlled Kenya. Eventually his nephew — Suri’s grandfather — followed.

    Suri’s father was born in Kenya and obtained an extensive education, receiving an engineering degree in Britain, then returning to Kenya. Her mother, a native of India who moved to Kenya after marrying, is a doctor.

    Suri was a good student and, having overcome her initial trepidation about economics, found the subject more and more to her liking. “I had an amazing economics teacher in high school,” Suri says. She was accepted to study economics at Cambridge University, where Suri says she got an excellent technical education. But upon graduating, she adds, “I wanted to know more about developing countries.”


    Tavneet Suri photographed at the MIT Sloan School of Management Photo: Bryce Vickmark

    To remedy that, Suri decided to pursue a master’s degree in international and development economics at Yale University, thinking she would go into policy work of some kind. Instead, she wound up staying for a PhD, spurred on by mentors including her main thesis adviser, Michael Boozer. She emerged with a thesis consisting of three papers in the microeconomics of developing countries, and got a job offer after a visit to MIT Sloan that she remembers being full of engaging conversations with her future colleagues.

    “I remember having a very heated discussion with Roberto [Rigobon, an MIT Sloan professor] about one of the technical aspects of my paper, which was fun,” Suri says. “You get this gut feeling, which is hard to explain, and I just felt this would be the right place for me.”

    In truth, it was not Suri’s first opportunity to join the Institute; she had been accepted to MIT for undergraduate study. But the second time was the right one.

    “My mother said it was destiny, and that I had to accept the job offer,” Suri jokes.

    How voters vote

    Suri’s PhD work pointed the way to some of her most successful research at MIT. For instance, one of her papers explored informal risk-sharing arrangements in Kenya, establishing that while such practices have long existed, they have not always been fully efficient.

    M-PESA had not been invented at that time, but when it was introduced in 2007, “the mobile-money research was a natural fit,” Suri says. Her work, often done in collaboration with economist William Jack of Georgetown University, has found that about half of the Kenyan households surveyed report income shocks within the past six months, and that households without access to M-PESA must cut their spending by about 7 percent more when faced with shocks.

    Suri’s current research is delving into Kenyan politics in multiple ways. In one recent working paper, with two co-authors — Thomas Stoker of MIT Sloan and Benjamin Marx, a PhD candidate in the Department of Economics — Suri reported that ethnic alliances influence whether local politicians favor landlords or tenants. More recently, she has been working on a research project, together with Marx and Vincent Pons, also a PhD candidate in economics at MIT, that is studying voter participation in Kenya’s general elections of this past March. Kenya has had past elections tainted by corruption problems and marred by violence, such as in 2007; this March, the country attempted to hold cleaner elections with more local and regional offices on the slate. Suri and her co-researchers designed a field experiment in which about 1 million citizens were texted, as a prompt for voting; the team is still analyzing the data.

    “We’re trying to look at what the [country] can do to make sure it has better elections,” Suri says. So while she only sometimes goes back to Kenya, she is still trying to give back.
    6:00p
    ‘Rogue’ asteroids may be the norm
    To get an idea of how the early solar system may have formed, scientists often look to asteroids. These relics of rock and dust represent what today’s planets may have been before they differentiated into bodies of core, mantle, and crust.

    In the 1980s, scientists’ view of the solar system’s asteroids was essentially static: Asteroids that formed near the sun remained near the sun; those that formed farther out stayed on the outskirts. But in the last decade, astronomers have detected asteroids with compositions unexpected for their locations in space: Those that looked like they formed in warmer environments were found further out in the solar system, and vice versa. Scientists considered these objects to be anomalous “rogue” asteroids.

    But now, a new map developed by researchers from MIT and the Paris Observatory charts the size, composition, and location of more than 100,000 asteroids throughout the solar system, and shows that rogue asteroids are actually more common than previously thought. Particularly in the solar system’s main asteroid belt — between Mars and Jupiter — the researchers found a compositionally diverse mix of asteroids.

    The new asteroid map suggests that the early solar system may have undergone dramatic changes before the planets assumed their current alignment. For instance, Jupiter may have drifted closer to the sun, dragging with it a host of asteroids that originally formed in the colder edges of the solar system, before moving back out to its current position. Jupiter’s migration may have simultaneously knocked around more close-in asteroids, scattering them outward.

    “It’s like Jupiter bowled a strike through the asteroid belt,” says Francesca DeMeo, who did much of the mapping as a postdoc in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences. “Everything that was there moves, so you have this melting pot of material coming from all over the solar system.”

    DeMeo says the new map will help theorists flesh out such theories of how the solar system evolved early in its history. She and Benoit Carry of the Paris Observatory have published details of the map in Nature.

    From a trickle to a river

    To create a comprehensive asteroid map, the researchers first analyzed data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, which uses a large telescope in New Mexico to take in spectral images of hundreds of thousands of galaxies. Included in the survey is data from more than 100,000 asteroids in the solar system. DeMeo grouped these asteroids by size, location, and composition. She defined this last category by asteroids’ origins — whether in a warmer or colder environment — a characteristic that can be determined by whether an asteroid’s surface is more reflective at redder or bluer wavelengths.

    The team then had to account for any observational biases. While the survey includes more than 100,000 asteroids, these are the brightest such objects in the sky. Asteroids that are smaller and less reflective are much harder to pick out, meaning that an asteroid map based on observations may unintentionally leave out an entire population of asteroids.

    To avoid any bias in their mapping, the researchers determined that the survey most likely includes every asteroid down to a diameter of five kilometers. At this size limit, they were able to produce an accurate picture of the asteroid belt. The researchers grouped the asteroids by size and composition, and mapped them into distinct regions of the solar system where the asteroids were observed.

    From their map, they observed that for larger asteroids, the traditional pattern holds true: The further one gets from the sun, the colder the asteroids appear. But for smaller asteroids, this trend seems to break down. Those that look to have formed in warmer environments can be found not just close to the sun, but throughout the solar system — and asteroids that resemble colder bodies beyond Jupiter can also be found in the inner asteroid belt, closer to Mars.

    As the team writes in its paper, “the trickle of asteroids discovered in unexpected locations has turned into a river. We now see that all asteroid types exist in every region of the main belt.”

    A shifting solar system

    The compositional diversity seen in this new asteroid map may add weight to a theory of planetary migration called the Grand Tack model. This model lays out a scenario in which Jupiter, within the first few million years of the solar system’s creation, migrated as close to the sun as Mars is today. During its migration, Jupiter may have moved right through the asteroid belt, scattering its contents and repopulating it with asteroids from both the inner and outer solar system before moving back out to its current position — a picture that is very different from the traditional, static view of a solar system that formed and stayed essentially in place for the past 4.5 billion years.

    “That [theory] has been completely turned on its head,” DeMeo says. “Today we think the absolute opposite: Everything’s been moved around a lot and the solar system has been very dynamic.”

    Clark Chapman, a senior research scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo., says the new map is a welcome update to the asteroid maps he and his colleagues developed in the 1980s, which included only those asteroids measuring 20 kilometers or more in diameter. In the past two decades, he says, scientists have made leaps in their understanding of asteroids’ dynamics and evolutionary history, which DeMeo and Carry have now put into context.

    “What they have done is attempted to at least qualitatively describe how the unexpected relationships between asteroid size, distance from the sun, and composition fit into the current dynamical models and other insights from the past two decades,” Chapman says. “I'm very glad that this basic research has been done, and I think it is a most welcome contribution to understanding the solar system.”

    DeMeo adds that the early pinballing of asteroids around the solar system may have had big impacts — literally — on Earth. For instance, colder asteroids that formed further out likely contained ice. When they were brought closer in by planetary migrations, they may have collided with Earth, leaving remnants of ice that eventually melted into water.

    “The story of what the asteroid belt is telling us also relates to how Earth developed water, and how it stayed in this Goldilocks region of habitability today,” DeMeo says.

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