Schneier on Security's Journal

Lessons From the FBI's Insider Threat Program

This article is worth reading. One bit:

For a time the FBI put its back into coming up with predictive analytics to help predict insider behavior prior to malicious activity. Rather than coming up with a powerful tool to stop criminals before they did damage, the FBI ended up with a system that was statistically worse than random at ferreting out bad behavior. Compared to the predictive capabilities of Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog of Groundhog Day, that system did a worse job of predicting malicious insider activity, Reidy says.
"We would have done better hiring Punxsutawney Phil and waving him in front of someone and saying, 'Is this an insider or not an insider?'" he says.

Rather than getting wrapped up in prediction or detection, he believes organizations should start first with deterrence.