Misha Verbitsky - May 28th, 2020

May 28th, 2020

May 28th, 2020
01:38 am


Moja Swarzyca
Смешное, не знал
юзер [info]dizorder, много лет как удалившийся,
записал свое гениальное стихотворение "Моя Свастика"
в акустике под Гражданскую Оборону.

Каноническая версия, если кто не знает (Majdanek Waltz)
(одна из лучших песен вообще, лучше не делают точно)
потешная концертная версия от них же
и бм-кавер от какого-то поляка, мне незнакомого


Current Mood: sick
Current Music: Majdanek Waltz - MY SWASTIKA
Tags: ,

01:33 pm


ковидобесие, паника и локдаун
Хорошая статья про смертность от коронавируса в UK.
оказывается, в ожидании массового падежа населения
правительство приказало перевести всех престарелых пациентов из
больниц обратно в дома престарелых; пациенты перезаразили
здоровых и все померли. Госпитали, откуда их
вывезли, так и остались пустыми, потому что
предсказания британских ученых оказались полнейшей
туфтой и липой. Все как всегда, основной причиной жертв
ковида является ковидобесие, паника и локдаун.

Around the peak of hospital cases on 10 April, only 51 per

cent of the NHS's acute beds were occupied by a Covid
patient. Around the same time, 41 per cent of acute beds
were not occupied at all - more than four times the normal
number. The emergency Nightingale hospitals have also been
largely empty. The Nightingale in London's Excel Centre,
which had space for 4,000 beds, only treated 51 patients
in its first three weeks of operation. It was closed at
the beginning of May.

As Professor Carl Henegan, director of Oxford University's
Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, has argued, the fact
that Covid cases and deaths peaked in early April suggests
that the number of people getting infected peaked before
the lockdown
was introduced on 23 March.

In other words, putting the public under house arrest and
wrecking the economy - which has also contributed to
thousands of unnecessary deaths
- was never necessary to
'Protect the NHS' in any case. But by the time the
lockdown was introduced, the government was convinced that
the NHS faced a tsunami of Covid cases. The infamous
Imperial College model predicted 500,000 deaths from an
unmitigated epidemic. Fear and panic drove the
decision-making. And those decisions cost lives.

Shockingly, the UK government was not alone in pushing the
crisis into care homes. In New York, the centre of the
world's worst outbreak, it is a similar story. Care homes
were not only neglected for PPE and testing, but were also
ordered to take in Covid patients. Homes could be fined
$10,000 or lose their operating licence if they refused to
comply with the rules. In Lombardy, the hardest-hit region
of Italy, care homes were paid extra to take in Covid
patients from hospitals.

The carnage in care homes ought to be the biggest scandal
of the Covid crisis.

* * *

Советник правительства Нил Фергюсон, который настаивал
на локдауне, обещал, что в Англии будет 500,000 погибших
от ковида. Полмиллиона трупов, положим, в Англии не было, но 27
тысяч было; из них как минимум половина на его совести.

Что занятно, Нил Фергюсон обещал то же самое и для
свиного гриппа, и тоже настаивал на локдауне.

In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that

swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per
cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate
was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on
Ferguson's advice, said a 'reasonable worst-case scenario'
was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.

In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a
death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.


"So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?"

* * *

Ну и до кучи, там же смешное интервью с Йорамом Лассом,
бывшим израильским министром здравоохранения, а ныне
профессором в tau.ac.il.


Утверждает, что единственная разница между короной
и кучей других эпидемий - в том, что параллельно с
эпидемией ковида началась эпидемия ковидобесия и
истерической паники в социальных сетях. В результате
население поехало крышей и потребовало от государства
максимально жестких полицейских мер в защиту от ковида,
приведших в итоге к многократно большим жертвам,
чем сам ковид.

spiked: You have described the global response to

coronavirus as hysteria. Can you explain that?

Yoram Lass: It is the first epidemic in history which is
accompanied by another epidemic - the virus of the social
networks. These new media have brainwashed entire
populations. What you get is fear and anxiety, and an
inability to look at real data. And therefore you have all
the ingredients for monstrous hysteria.

It is what is known in science as positive feedback or a
snowball effect. The government is afraid of its
constituents. Therefore, it implements draconian
measures. The constituents look at the draconian measures
and become even more hysterical. They feed each other and
the snowball becomes larger and larger until you reach
irrational territory. This is nothing more than a flu
epidemic if you care to look at the numbers and the data,
but people who are in a state of anxiety are blind. If I
were making the decisions, I would try to give people the
real numbers. And I would never destroy my country.

spiked: What do the numbers tell us, in your view?

Lass: Mortality due to coronavirus is a fake number. Most
people are not dying from coronavirus. Those recording
deaths simply change the label. If patients died from
leukaemia, from metastatic cancer, from cardiovascular
disease or from dementia, they put coronavirus. Also, the
number of infected people is fake, because it depends on
the number of tests. The more tests you do the more
infected people you get.

The only real number is the total number of deaths - all
causes of death, not just coronavirus. If you look at
those numbers, you will see that every winter we get what
is called an excess death rate. That is, during the winter
more people die compared to the average, due to regular,
seasonal flu epidemics, which nobody cares about. If you
look at the coronavirus wave on a graph, you will see that
it looks like a spike. Coronavirus comes very fast, but it
also goes away very fast. The influenza wave is shallow as
it takes three months to pass, but coronavirus takes one
month. If you count the number of people who die in terms
of excess mortality - which is the area under the curve -
you will see that during the coronavirus season, we have
had an excess mortality which is about 15 per cent larger
than the epidemic of regular flu in 2017.

Compared to that rise, the draconian measures are of
biblical proportions. Hundreds of millions of people are
suffering. In developing countries many will die from
starvation. In developed countries many will die from
unemployment. Unemployment is mortality. More people will
die from the measures than from the virus. And the people
who die from the measures are the breadwinners. They are
younger. Among the people who die from coronavirus, the
median age is often higher than the life expectancy of the
population. What has been done is not proportionate. But
people are afraid. People are brainwashed. They do not
listen to the data. And that includes governments.

Lass: Any reasonable expert - that is, anyone but
Professor Ferguson from Imperial College who would have
locked down everybody when we had swine flu - will tell
you that lockdown cannot change the final number of
infected people. It can only change the rate of
infection. And people argue that by changing the rate of
infection and 'flattening the curve', we prevented the
collapse of hospitals. I have shown you the costs of
lockdown, but this was the argument in favour of it. But
look at Sweden. No lockdown and no collapse of
hospitals. The argument for the lockdown collapses.

* * *

Ну и вот, целое сообщество, полное ковидоскептицизма
с разоблачением фейков от ковидобесия, которыми
полны мейнстримные масс-медиа, типа такого вот

The media says "crematoria ovens never stop burning" in
Mexico City. Independent journalist visits crematoria and
hospitalsin Mexico to try and verify the claims of
mainstream media that Mexico COVID cases are overwhelming
hospitals and crematoria.

To the contrary, many hospitals
and crematoria are closed, and those that are open are
mainly empty, just as in the USA.

Про Бразилию пишут то же самое, типа трупы на улицах
некому уносить, между тем даже в Рио госпитали по большей
части пустуют.

Вообще эта ситуация повторяется по всему миру,
по случаю ковида и локдауна, количество пациентов
падает, госпитали простаивают и разоряются, врачей
и медсестер увольняют и отправляют в отпуск.



Current Mood: sick
Current Music: Maidanek Waltz - ОФЕЛИЯ

03:25 pm


Административный восторг
смешно до безумия

градус ковидобесия в сраной-говняной задрался
до неизбывных высот, хуже разве что в Индии, где
прохожих тупо бьют палками. Впрочем, в Чечне тоже
бьют палками,
так что хуйлостан и тут впереди.

"Административный восторг", дык.
Думаю, что этим не закончится, дно пробито,
конечно, но под ним есть еще много чего.

По ссылке от [info]boned.


Current Mood: sick
Current Music: Maidanek Waltz - Stille!
Tags: , ,

11:02 pm


as buggy as Kenya
Математический биолог Нил Фергюсон из Империала больше
всего прославился тем, что на каждую эпидемию
выдавал прогнозы, которые были преувеличены,
самое малое, в 20 раз. Так, например, он предсказал
массовый мор от свиного гриппа в 2009-м, с 60,000
жертвами, и требовал карантина. В реальности
от свиного гриппа погибло 457 человек.

В феврале-марте этого профессора выдвинули
главным экспертом по ковиду от людей с хорошими твиттерами
из The Guardian и Financial Times. Британскому правительству
пришлось через нехочу последовать его указаниям,
то есть тотальному локдауну, с потешными
полицейскими гонками за одинокими прохожими.

О качестве его модели по ковиду легко судить, потому
что Фергюсон предсказал 40,000 смертей от ковида
в Швеции к 1 маю, и 100,000 к июню; реальный
график шведской смертности от ковида выглядит так

и суммарно там будет, видимо, не больше 7000
человек (сейчас 4266).

Что самое смешное, до недавнего времени
сама модель была не опубликована, то есть
исходники программы оставались секретными.
Месяца 2 или 3 Фергюсону выкручивали руки,
требуя публикации, а он отплевывался, но
недавно таки нанял каких-то программеров
из Микрософта, они почистили, улучшили и
выложили его поделие на гитхаб:
Немедленно оказалось, что в программе
ошибка на ошибке сидит и погоняет ошибкой же.

Борцы с ковидобесием сей код разобрали,
тыкают в него пальцем и смеются:


The code that was reviewed in the first-linked article

. . . had been cleaned up! It's not the actual code used
to make the original predictions. Instead, people from
Microsoft spent a month trying to fix it-and it was still
as buggy as Kenya.

The code was originally in C, and then upgraded to
C++. Well, it could be worse. It could have been Cobol or
Fortran-though one of those reviewing the code suggested:
"Much of the code consists of formulas for which no
purpose is given. John Carmack (a legendary video-game
programmer) surmised that some of the code might have been
automatically translated from FORTRAN some years ago."

All in all, this appears to be the epitome of bad modeling
and coding practice. Code that grew like weeds over
years. Code lacking adequate documentation and version
control. Code based on overcomplicated and essentially
untestable models.

But it gets even better! The leader of the Imperial team,
the aforementioned Ferguson, was caught with his pants
down-literally-canoodling with his (married) girlfriend in
violation of the lockdown rules for which HE was largely

The model. What it's doing is best described as "SimCity

without the graphics". It attempts to simulate households,
schools, offices, people and their movements, etc. I won't
go further into the underlying assumptions, since that's
well explored elsewhere.

Non-deterministic outputs. Due to bugs, the code can
produce very different results given identical
inputs. They routinely act as if this is unimportant.

The documentation says:

The model is stochastic. Multiple runs with different
seeds should be undertaken to see average behaviour.

"Stochastic" is just a scientific-sounding word for
"random". That's not a problem if the randomness is
intentional pseudo-randomness, i.e. the randomness is
derived from a starting "seed" which is iterated to
produce the random numbers. Such randomness is often used
in Monte Carlo techniques. It's safe because the seed can
be recorded and the same (pseudo-)random numbers produced
from it in future.

Investigation reveals the truth: the code produces
critically different results, even for identical starting
seeds and parameters.

I'll illustrate with a few bugs. In issue 116 a UK "red
team" at Edinburgh University reports that they tried to
use a mode that stores data tables in a more efficient
format for faster loading, and discovered - to their
surprise - that the resulting predictions varied by around
80,000 deaths after 80 days

That mode doesn't change anything about the world being
simulated, so this was obviously a bug.

Imperial advised Edinburgh that the problem goes away if
you run the model in single-threaded mode, like they
do. This means they suggest using only a single CPU core
rather than the many cores that any video game would
successfully use. For a simulation of a country, using
only a single CPU core is obviously a dire problem - as
far from supercomputing as you can get. Nonetheless,
that's how Imperial use the code: they know it breaks when
they try to run it faster. It's clear from reading the
code that in 2014 Imperial tried to make the code use
multiple CPUs to speed it up, but never made it work
reliably. Results that randomly change from run to run are
a common consequence of thread-safety bugs. More
colloquially, these are known as "Heisenbugs".

But Edinburgh came back and reported that - even in
single-threaded mode - they still see the problem. So
Imperial's understanding of the issue is wrong. Finally,
Imperial admit there's a bug by referencing a code change
they've made that fixes it. The explanation given is "It
looks like historically the second pair of seeds had been
used at this point, to make the runs identical regardless
of how the network was made, but that this had been
changed when seed-resetting was implemented". In other
words, in the process of changing the model they made it
non-replicable and never noticed.

Why didn't they notice? Because their code is so deeply
riddled with similar bugs and they struggled so much to
fix them that they got into the habit of simply averaging
the results of multiple runs to cover it up... and
eventually this behaviour became normalised within the

In issue #30, someone reports that the model produces
different outputs depending on what kind of computer it's
run on (regardless of the number of CPUs). Again, the
explanation is that although this new problem "will just
add to the issues" ... "This isn't a problem running the
model in full as it is stochastic anyway".

Undocumented equations. Much of the code consists of
formulas for which no purpose is given. John Carmack (a
legendary video-game programmer) surmised that some of the
code might have been automatically translated from FORTRAN
some years ago.

For example, on line 510 of SetupModel.cpp there is a loop
over all the "places" the simulation knows about. This
code appears to be trying to calculate R0 for
"places". Hotels are excluded during this pass, without

Continuing development. Despite being aware of the severe
problems in their code that they "haven't had time" to
fix, the Imperial team continue to add new features; for
instance, the model attempts to simulate the impact of
digital contact tracing apps.

Adding new features to a codebase with this many quality
problems will just compound them and make them worse. If I
saw this in a company I was consulting for I'd immediately
advise them to halt new feature development until thorough
regression testing was in place and code quality had been

Conclusions. All papers based on this code should be
retracted immediately. Imperial's modelling efforts should
be reset with a new team that isn't under Professor
Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results
with published code from day one.

* * *

Вообще полезный сайт
Гугл, к сожалению, деиндексирует либо зануляет
пейджранк любому сайту, где высказываются против
коронабесия, поэтому сходу подобные
страницы не найти, надо копаться.

Такие дела

Current Mood: sick
Current Music: Kraftwerk - Das Model Live 1982

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