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May 28th, 2020
| May 28th, 2020 | |
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| 01:38 am [Link] |
Moja Swarzyca Смешное, не знал https://katab.asia/2018/02/25/majda юзер ![[info]](http://lj.rossia.org/img/userinfo.gif) dizorder, много лет как удалившийся,записал свое гениальное стихотворение "Моя Свастика" в акустике под Гражданскую Оборону. Каноническая версия, если кто не знает (Majdanek Waltz) http://seidr.woods.ru/mp3/Majdanek_Walt (одна из лучших песен вообще, лучше не делают точно) потешная концертная версия от них же https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr6zG2C и бм-кавер от какого-то поляка, мне незнакомого https://stworz.bandcamp.com/track/m Привет Current Mood: |
| Time | Event |
| 01:33 pm [Link] |
ковидобесие, паника и локдаун Хорошая статья про смертность от коронавируса в UK. https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/1 оказывается, в ожидании массового падежа населения правительство приказало перевести всех престарелых пациентов из больниц обратно в дома престарелых; пациенты перезаразили здоровых и все померли. Госпитали, откуда их вывезли, так и остались пустыми, потому что предсказания британских ученых оказались полнейшей туфтой и липой. Все как всегда, основной причиной жертв ковида является ковидобесие, паника и локдаун. Around the peak of hospital cases on 10 April, only 51 per cent of the NHS's acute beds were occupied by a Covid patient. Around the same time, 41 per cent of acute beds were not occupied at all - more than four times the normal number. The emergency Nightingale hospitals have also been largely empty. The Nightingale in London's Excel Centre, which had space for 4,000 beds, only treated 51 patients in its first three weeks of operation. It was closed at the beginning of May. As Professor Carl Henegan, director of Oxford University's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, has argued, the fact that Covid cases and deaths peaked in early April suggests that the number of people getting infected peaked before the lockdown was introduced on 23 March. In other words, putting the public under house arrest and wrecking the economy - which has also contributed to thousands of unnecessary deaths - was never necessary to 'Protect the NHS' in any case. But by the time the lockdown was introduced, the government was convinced that the NHS faced a tsunami of Covid cases. The infamous Imperial College model predicted 500,000 deaths from an unmitigated epidemic. Fear and panic drove the decision-making. And those decisions cost lives. Shockingly, the UK government was not alone in pushing the crisis into care homes. In New York, the centre of the world's worst outbreak, it is a similar story. Care homes were not only neglected for PPE and testing, but were also ordered to take in Covid patients. Homes could be fined $10,000 or lose their operating licence if they refused to comply with the rules. In Lombardy, the hardest-hit region of Italy, care homes were paid extra to take in Covid patients from hospitals. The carnage in care homes ought to be the biggest scandal of the Covid crisis. * * * Советник правительства Нил Фергюсон, который настаивал на локдауне, обещал, что в Англии будет 500,000 погибших от ковида. Полмиллиона трупов, положим, в Англии не было, но 27 тысяч было; из них как минимум половина на его совести. Что занятно, Нил Фергюсон обещал то же самое и для свиного гриппа, и тоже настаивал на локдауне. In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson's advice, said a 'reasonable worst-case scenario' was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/s https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/p https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.e "So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?" * * * Ну и до кучи, там же смешное интервью с Йорамом Лассом, бывшим израильским министром здравоохранения, а ныне профессором в tau.ac.il. https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/2 Утверждает, что единственная разница между короной и кучей других эпидемий - в том, что параллельно с эпидемией ковида началась эпидемия ковидобесия и истерической паники в социальных сетях. В результате население поехало крышей и потребовало от государства максимально жестких полицейских мер в защиту от ковида, приведших в итоге к многократно большим жертвам, чем сам ковид. spiked: You have described the global response to coronavirus as hysteria. Can you explain that? Yoram Lass: It is the first epidemic in history which is accompanied by another epidemic - the virus of the social networks. These new media have brainwashed entire populations. What you get is fear and anxiety, and an inability to look at real data. And therefore you have all the ingredients for monstrous hysteria. It is what is known in science as positive feedback or a snowball effect. The government is afraid of its constituents. Therefore, it implements draconian measures. The constituents look at the draconian measures and become even more hysterical. They feed each other and the snowball becomes larger and larger until you reach irrational territory. This is nothing more than a flu epidemic if you care to look at the numbers and the data, but people who are in a state of anxiety are blind. If I were making the decisions, I would try to give people the real numbers. And I would never destroy my country. spiked: What do the numbers tell us, in your view? Lass: Mortality due to coronavirus is a fake number. Most people are not dying from coronavirus. Those recording deaths simply change the label. If patients died from leukaemia, from metastatic cancer, from cardiovascular disease or from dementia, they put coronavirus. Also, the number of infected people is fake, because it depends on the number of tests. The more tests you do the more infected people you get. The only real number is the total number of deaths - all causes of death, not just coronavirus. If you look at those numbers, you will see that every winter we get what is called an excess death rate. That is, during the winter more people die compared to the average, due to regular, seasonal flu epidemics, which nobody cares about. If you look at the coronavirus wave on a graph, you will see that it looks like a spike. Coronavirus comes very fast, but it also goes away very fast. The influenza wave is shallow as it takes three months to pass, but coronavirus takes one month. If you count the number of people who die in terms of excess mortality - which is the area under the curve - you will see that during the coronavirus season, we have had an excess mortality which is about 15 per cent larger than the epidemic of regular flu in 2017. Compared to that rise, the draconian measures are of biblical proportions. Hundreds of millions of people are suffering. In developing countries many will die from starvation. In developed countries many will die from unemployment. Unemployment is mortality. More people will die from the measures than from the virus. And the people who die from the measures are the breadwinners. They are younger. Among the people who die from coronavirus, the median age is often higher than the life expectancy of the population. What has been done is not proportionate. But people are afraid. People are brainwashed. They do not listen to the data. And that includes governments. Lass: Any reasonable expert - that is, anyone but Professor Ferguson from Imperial College who would have locked down everybody when we had swine flu - will tell you that lockdown cannot change the final number of infected people. It can only change the rate of infection. And people argue that by changing the rate of infection and 'flattening the curve', we prevented the collapse of hospitals. I have shown you the costs of lockdown, but this was the argument in favour of it. But look at Sweden. No lockdown and no collapse of hospitals. The argument for the lockdown collapses. * * * Ну и вот, целое сообщество, полное ковидоскептицизма https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19skeptic с разоблачением фейков от ковидобесия, которыми полны мейнстримные масс-медиа, типа такого вот https://archive.org/details/fake-sky-ne The media says "crematoria ovens never stop burning" in Mexico City. Independent journalist visits crematoria and hospitalsin Mexico to try and verify the claims of mainstream media that Mexico COVID cases are overwhelming hospitals and crematoria. To the contrary, many hospitals and crematoria are closed, and those that are open are mainly empty, just as in the USA. Про Бразилию пишут то же самое, типа трупы на улицах некому уносить, между тем даже в Рио госпитали по большей части пустуют. Вообще эта ситуация повторяется по всему миру, по случаю ковида и локдауна, количество пациентов падает, госпитали простаивают и разоряются, врачей и медсестер увольняют и отправляют в отпуск. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/doc https://calmatters.org/health/2020/04/c https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl https://www.startribune.com/covid-19-fa https://www.startribune.com/covid-19-pl https://www.dailydemocrat.com/2020/04/2 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/us/p Привет Current Mood: |
| Time | Event |
| 03:25 pm [Link] |
Административный восторг смешно до безумия https://medialeaks.ru/2705ngtv-soby https://marusya-s.livejournal.com/80600 https://www.exler.ru/blog/pandemiya-chi https://www.sobyanin.ru/vtoroi-etap-smy https://rg.ru/2020/05/27/sobianin-rassk https://sell-off.livejournal.com/416154 https://cont.ws/@skobarj/1685028 https://irek-murtazin.livejournal.com/2  градус ковидобесия в сраной-говняной задрался до неизбывных высот, хуже разве что в Индии, где прохожих тупо бьют палками. Впрочем, в Чечне тоже бьют палками, так что хуйлостан и тут впереди. "Административный восторг", дык. Думаю, что этим не закончится, дно пробито, конечно, но под ним есть еще много чего. По ссылке от boned.Привет Current Mood: |
| Time | Event |
| 11:02 pm [Link] |
as buggy as Kenya Офигенно https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-si https://streetwiseprofessor.com/code-vi https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-revie Математический биолог Нил Фергюсон из Империала больше всего прославился тем, что на каждую эпидемию выдавал прогнозы, которые были преувеличены, самое малое, в 20 раз. Так, например, он предсказал массовый мор от свиного гриппа в 2009-м, с 60,000 жертвами, и требовал карантина. В реальности от свиного гриппа погибло 457 человек. В феврале-марте этого профессора выдвинули главным экспертом по ковиду от людей с хорошими твиттерами из The Guardian и Financial Times. Британскому правительству пришлось через нехочу последовать его указаниям, то есть тотальному локдауну, с потешными полицейскими гонками за одинокими прохожими. О качестве его модели по ковиду легко судить, потому что Фергюсон предсказал 40,000 смертей от ковида в Швеции к 1 маю, и 100,000 к июню; реальный график шведской смертности от ковида выглядит так  и суммарно там будет, видимо, не больше 7000 человек (сейчас 4266). Что самое смешное, до недавнего времени сама модель была не опубликована, то есть исходники программы оставались секретными. Месяца 2 или 3 Фергюсону выкручивали руки, требуя публикации, а он отплевывался, но недавно таки нанял каких-то программеров из Микрософта, они почистили, улучшили и выложили его поделие на гитхаб: https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-si Немедленно оказалось, что в программе ошибка на ошибке сидит и погоняет ошибкой же. Борцы с ковидобесием сей код разобрали, тыкают в него пальцем и смеются: https://streetwiseprofessor.com/code-vi https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-revie https://lockdownsceptics.org/second-ana https://lockdownsceptics.org/how-convin https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/st https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/requ https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepti The code that was reviewed in the first-linked article . . . had been cleaned up! It's not the actual code used to make the original predictions. Instead, people from Microsoft spent a month trying to fix it-and it was still as buggy as Kenya. The code was originally in C, and then upgraded to C++. Well, it could be worse. It could have been Cobol or Fortran-though one of those reviewing the code suggested: "Much of the code consists of formulas for which no purpose is given. John Carmack (a legendary video-game programmer) surmised that some of the code might have been automatically translated from FORTRAN some years ago." All in all, this appears to be the epitome of bad modeling and coding practice. Code that grew like weeds over years. Code lacking adequate documentation and version control. Code based on overcomplicated and essentially untestable models. But it gets even better! The leader of the Imperial team, the aforementioned Ferguson, was caught with his pants down-literally-canoodling with his (married) girlfriend in violation of the lockdown rules for which HE was largely responsible. The model. What it's doing is best described as "SimCity without the graphics". It attempts to simulate households, schools, offices, people and their movements, etc. I won't go further into the underlying assumptions, since that's well explored elsewhere. Non-deterministic outputs. Due to bugs, the code can produce very different results given identical inputs. They routinely act as if this is unimportant. The documentation says: The model is stochastic. Multiple runs with different seeds should be undertaken to see average behaviour. "Stochastic" is just a scientific-sounding word for "random". That's not a problem if the randomness is intentional pseudo-randomness, i.e. the randomness is derived from a starting "seed" which is iterated to produce the random numbers. Such randomness is often used in Monte Carlo techniques. It's safe because the seed can be recorded and the same (pseudo-)random numbers produced from it in future. Investigation reveals the truth: the code produces critically different results, even for identical starting seeds and parameters. I'll illustrate with a few bugs. In issue 116 a UK "red team" at Edinburgh University reports that they tried to use a mode that stores data tables in a more efficient format for faster loading, and discovered - to their surprise - that the resulting predictions varied by around 80,000 deaths after 80 days That mode doesn't change anything about the world being simulated, so this was obviously a bug. Imperial advised Edinburgh that the problem goes away if you run the model in single-threaded mode, like they do. This means they suggest using only a single CPU core rather than the many cores that any video game would successfully use. For a simulation of a country, using only a single CPU core is obviously a dire problem - as far from supercomputing as you can get. Nonetheless, that's how Imperial use the code: they know it breaks when they try to run it faster. It's clear from reading the code that in 2014 Imperial tried to make the code use multiple CPUs to speed it up, but never made it work reliably. Results that randomly change from run to run are a common consequence of thread-safety bugs. More colloquially, these are known as "Heisenbugs". But Edinburgh came back and reported that - even in single-threaded mode - they still see the problem. So Imperial's understanding of the issue is wrong. Finally, Imperial admit there's a bug by referencing a code change they've made that fixes it. The explanation given is "It looks like historically the second pair of seeds had been used at this point, to make the runs identical regardless of how the network was made, but that this had been changed when seed-resetting was implemented". In other words, in the process of changing the model they made it non-replicable and never noticed. Why didn't they notice? Because their code is so deeply riddled with similar bugs and they struggled so much to fix them that they got into the habit of simply averaging the results of multiple runs to cover it up... and eventually this behaviour became normalised within the team. In issue #30, someone reports that the model produces different outputs depending on what kind of computer it's run on (regardless of the number of CPUs). Again, the explanation is that although this new problem "will just add to the issues" ... "This isn't a problem running the model in full as it is stochastic anyway". Undocumented equations. Much of the code consists of formulas for which no purpose is given. John Carmack (a legendary video-game programmer) surmised that some of the code might have been automatically translated from FORTRAN some years ago. For example, on line 510 of SetupModel.cpp there is a loop over all the "places" the simulation knows about. This code appears to be trying to calculate R0 for "places". Hotels are excluded during this pass, without explanation. Continuing development. Despite being aware of the severe problems in their code that they "haven't had time" to fix, the Imperial team continue to add new features; for instance, the model attempts to simulate the impact of digital contact tracing apps. Adding new features to a codebase with this many quality problems will just compound them and make them worse. If I saw this in a company I was consulting for I'd immediately advise them to halt new feature development until thorough regression testing was in place and code quality had been improved. Conclusions. All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial's modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn't under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one. * * * Вообще полезный сайт https://lockdownsceptics.org Гугл, к сожалению, деиндексирует либо зануляет пейджранк любому сайту, где высказываются против коронабесия, поэтому сходу подобные страницы не найти, надо копаться. Такие дела Миша Current Mood: |
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