China risks provoking a backlash over Taiwan

*By taunting the US ‘paper tiger’, China risks provoking a backlash over Taiwan.*

Neither the US nor China is engaging in uncalculated emotional reaction. Both countries are pursuing their conflicting goals, driven by the strategic logic.

China's rulers' goal is to conquer Taiwan; this is not speculation, it is what they say. As long as that does not change, the idea of "stabilizing" this confrontation for the long term is self-delusion because China won't accept that as an outcome.

China's "reactions" to whatever happens are not spontaneous emotion. They are planned actions by officials, aiming at the goal of conquering Taiwan. Sometimes they go softer, sometimes harder, but either way it is tactics.

One of China's tactics — China uses it because it is effective — is to twist the US up in the contradiction between its "one China" policy and treating Taiwan as independent. In the long run, that contradiction will be debilitating; so if the US is to protect Taiwan's independence, it must move away from the "one China" policy.

China will threaten to break off relations, etc.; the US must respond, "We can't prevent you from doing that, but you'll hurt yourself more than you hurt us." Then it must stand firm until China comes to face facts.