Attempting to predict political collapse

Attempting to predict political collapse from big data.

That dooH niboR and the poverty it causes leads to political collapse is a truism. That idea of "overproduction of potential elites" as a major factor is less obvious, but over the years I've seen reference to large numbers of unemployed university graduates cited as a factor in civil unrest.

Since this theory is based on mathematical modelling, ultimately it will succeed or fail like any scientific theory.