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Пишет anon75448 (![[info]](http://lj.rossia.org/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} anon75448)@ 2019-10-29 14:06:00 |
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https://www.dn.se/insidan/ny-forskn
Women in Sweden have on average almost two children during the lifetime. It has been the same for the past 100 years. But the latest numbers from the Statistical central bureau of Sweden show that fertility decreased every year since 2009. Their measure of fertility is calculation of how many children per women will be born on average.
The statistics shows also that the average age of women giving first birth increases.
Today women are on average 30 years old when they give birth to the first child. Last time the average age was so high was in 1930.
This statistics has got attention of Gunnar Andersson who is professor of demography at Stockholm University.
- In 1930-ties the unemployment was high in Sweden. Many wanted to have children, but could not due to the economical situation. Therefore was a big peak was formed after the end of the war.
Also the trend, called "the baby boom", faded after a while.
- in 1900-s Swedes periodically postponed birth of their children, and periodically got children earlier. The variations cancelled each other, and the final result has almost always been that Swedish women on average had almost 2 children during their lifetime.
Now researchers afraid that the modern trend to postpone childbirth can contribute to decreasing birth rate.
- We have to wait and see if these who postpone the first child do not have as many children as women did before, says G. Andersson
Since 2009 women in Norden have their first child later and later - also in Sweden, which was not hit by the financial crisis of 2008 as badly as other countries. Before both the postponing and decreased birth rates could be as a rule explained by economical dips alone. And if not by economical, then by social and family politics.
But now none of the explanation models work.
The numbers made demographers around the world to unite around one poll. By using it it should be possible to find out why people across the whole Europe have been postponing the parenting.
The participating the study will answer a wide range of question - education, occupation, and housing. Also personality, perceived maturity, and use of social media are included.
All the answers will be later compared with plans to have children.
- We know that the increasing age of women giving first birth cannot be explained by the existing data. Therefore we are trying to go to subjective, personal perceptions, says G. Andersson.
Focus is now on the young peoples thinking and views on the world. This should be achieved with questions on what kind of trust one has towards the authorities and the society, and how one feels about the future, in combination with personality questions.
- We have reasons to believe that bad atmosphere in society and worsening future prospects contribute to that people postpone child birth. And people react differently on negative news depending on how one is predisposed.
G. Andersson means that nationalistic trends symbolized by president Trump, president Erdoğan and Brexit can contribute to the feeling of insecurity for the future.
But it is not just about reading or hearing about conflicts that plays a role, but also how: in social media or in traditional.
- If one has a non-fact-based image of reality, this could very well have an impact. If one is in an opinion corridor where the view for the future is that all goes to the sink, then one hardly wants to have children.
Since recently it is known that those who consider their health and their well-being as bad do not have children to the same extent as those who feel good, in spite that they would like. This connection has already been established, says G. Andersson.
Researchers would also like to understand whether high trust in authorities and social institutions that Nordic citizens traditionally possess, has changed because of social media. Like, what role can internet play?
- On one hand internet makes it easier to meet people via dating sites, on the other hand there is porn and virtual relationships, which counteract that we actually meet a partner.
Lower fertility can in long run be problematic of economical prospect. In countries like Germany and South Korea where fertility was low for decades, one observes that a shrinking young generation needing to support a growing older generation.
Among the Nordic countries Sweden looks reasonably good. With 1.7 children per qomen Sweden is number 2 after Iceland.
- Iceland has always been the top. They have had more flexible family system for much longer time. Also the fact that a large part of the population is fishermen, and children are "needed", affected how many children they had.
Even in Sweden there is a difference between big cities and countryside, between low- and high-educated. It is more usual that women with lower education in countryside have children earlier. But the postponing is also observed among them.
Swedish neighbors Finland and Norway are the hardest hit by the new trend after 2009. Norway's prime minister Erna Solberg encouraged people to "make more children", in order to remedy the feared decline in fertility.
In Finland fertility has been low since earlier. Now it decreased below 1.4 children per woman. This is why the Finnish government showed interest for the study that G. Andersson and his colleagues carry out.
- In Finland this is a very big problem. Earlier studies show that parents in Finland would like to have sons rather then daughters. This indicates problems with equality, so this relation must also be investigated, says G. Andersson.
Here in Sweden the question of fertility has not got any revival yet, but if this continues, it may have large-scale consequences, means G. Andersson.
Countries around the world will take part in the study.
- Something that was a local phenomenon before has now become global. Women give birth to children later all over the world.
So which bits in the life puzzle need to fall in place to be ready to create family?
For many people this list can be long: to have a partner, to feel matured to fulfill the role of parent, be happy with housing, and to secure a job.
Today's job market with less and less secure employments can be on reason to why one waits with having children, or completely withdraw from it. Livia Oláh, docent in demography, Stockholm University, mentions this in a press release from the university. Insecurity of the job market can absolutely affect predisposition towards creating family, and parental leave does not suit those who don't have a permanent employment, states L. Oláh.
It may delay until later to reach a position there one feels ready to create family today, but this experience has always been important for us humans. It was already the case for our ancestors in the agricultural society, says L. Oláh.
- Then one should own a farm to be able to support oneself and the family.
At that time 12-13% of the adult population in Sweden did not have children. Today the number is at the same level, i spite that more people have possibility to have children from a purely economical point of view.
- We have expected that the birth rate should remain the same as before. But on the other hand, who could have thought 10 years ago that the world will look like that today?
Questions in the research poll "Are these the reasons to the fact that Swedes wait with having children"
Those who answer the poll should respond on how worrying they believe the following phenomena are:
• Terrorism
• Climate change
• Economical crisis
• Refugee crisis in the world
• High unemployment
• Military conflicts
• Global epidemies
• Weakened democracy
• Growing social stratification
• Political extremism
• Future generation's views on the future
Personality treats that researchers want to ask about will be used to categorize the participants based on to what extent they agree or disagree either the following:
I am
• Extrovert, enthusiastic
• Critical, contesting
• Reliable, disciplined
• Worried, easily upset
• Open for new experience, complex
• Reserved, reticent
• Attractive, warm
• Unorganized, sloppy
• Easy, emotionally stable
• Conventional, not creative
Women in Sweden have on average almost two children during the lifetime. It has been the same for the past 100 years. But the latest numbers from the Statistical central bureau of Sweden show that fertility decreased every year since 2009. Their measure of fertility is calculation of how many children per women will be born on average.
The statistics shows also that the average age of women giving first birth increases.
Today women are on average 30 years old when they give birth to the first child. Last time the average age was so high was in 1930.
This statistics has got attention of Gunnar Andersson who is professor of demography at Stockholm University.
- In 1930-ties the unemployment was high in Sweden. Many wanted to have children, but could not due to the economical situation. Therefore was a big peak was formed after the end of the war.
Also the trend, called "the baby boom", faded after a while.
- in 1900-s Swedes periodically postponed birth of their children, and periodically got children earlier. The variations cancelled each other, and the final result has almost always been that Swedish women on average had almost 2 children during their lifetime.
Now researchers afraid that the modern trend to postpone childbirth can contribute to decreasing birth rate.
- We have to wait and see if these who postpone the first child do not have as many children as women did before, says G. Andersson
Since 2009 women in Norden have their first child later and later - also in Sweden, which was not hit by the financial crisis of 2008 as badly as other countries. Before both the postponing and decreased birth rates could be as a rule explained by economical dips alone. And if not by economical, then by social and family politics.
But now none of the explanation models work.
The numbers made demographers around the world to unite around one poll. By using it it should be possible to find out why people across the whole Europe have been postponing the parenting.
The participating the study will answer a wide range of question - education, occupation, and housing. Also personality, perceived maturity, and use of social media are included.
All the answers will be later compared with plans to have children.
- We know that the increasing age of women giving first birth cannot be explained by the existing data. Therefore we are trying to go to subjective, personal perceptions, says G. Andersson.
Focus is now on the young peoples thinking and views on the world. This should be achieved with questions on what kind of trust one has towards the authorities and the society, and how one feels about the future, in combination with personality questions.
- We have reasons to believe that bad atmosphere in society and worsening future prospects contribute to that people postpone child birth. And people react differently on negative news depending on how one is predisposed.
G. Andersson means that nationalistic trends symbolized by president Trump, president Erdoğan and Brexit can contribute to the feeling of insecurity for the future.
But it is not just about reading or hearing about conflicts that plays a role, but also how: in social media or in traditional.
- If one has a non-fact-based image of reality, this could very well have an impact. If one is in an opinion corridor where the view for the future is that all goes to the sink, then one hardly wants to have children.
Since recently it is known that those who consider their health and their well-being as bad do not have children to the same extent as those who feel good, in spite that they would like. This connection has already been established, says G. Andersson.
Researchers would also like to understand whether high trust in authorities and social institutions that Nordic citizens traditionally possess, has changed because of social media. Like, what role can internet play?
- On one hand internet makes it easier to meet people via dating sites, on the other hand there is porn and virtual relationships, which counteract that we actually meet a partner.
Lower fertility can in long run be problematic of economical prospect. In countries like Germany and South Korea where fertility was low for decades, one observes that a shrinking young generation needing to support a growing older generation.
Among the Nordic countries Sweden looks reasonably good. With 1.7 children per qomen Sweden is number 2 after Iceland.
- Iceland has always been the top. They have had more flexible family system for much longer time. Also the fact that a large part of the population is fishermen, and children are "needed", affected how many children they had.
Even in Sweden there is a difference between big cities and countryside, between low- and high-educated. It is more usual that women with lower education in countryside have children earlier. But the postponing is also observed among them.
Swedish neighbors Finland and Norway are the hardest hit by the new trend after 2009. Norway's prime minister Erna Solberg encouraged people to "make more children", in order to remedy the feared decline in fertility.
In Finland fertility has been low since earlier. Now it decreased below 1.4 children per woman. This is why the Finnish government showed interest for the study that G. Andersson and his colleagues carry out.
- In Finland this is a very big problem. Earlier studies show that parents in Finland would like to have sons rather then daughters. This indicates problems with equality, so this relation must also be investigated, says G. Andersson.
Here in Sweden the question of fertility has not got any revival yet, but if this continues, it may have large-scale consequences, means G. Andersson.
Countries around the world will take part in the study.
- Something that was a local phenomenon before has now become global. Women give birth to children later all over the world.
So which bits in the life puzzle need to fall in place to be ready to create family?
For many people this list can be long: to have a partner, to feel matured to fulfill the role of parent, be happy with housing, and to secure a job.
Today's job market with less and less secure employments can be on reason to why one waits with having children, or completely withdraw from it. Livia Oláh, docent in demography, Stockholm University, mentions this in a press release from the university. Insecurity of the job market can absolutely affect predisposition towards creating family, and parental leave does not suit those who don't have a permanent employment, states L. Oláh.
It may delay until later to reach a position there one feels ready to create family today, but this experience has always been important for us humans. It was already the case for our ancestors in the agricultural society, says L. Oláh.
- Then one should own a farm to be able to support oneself and the family.
At that time 12-13% of the adult population in Sweden did not have children. Today the number is at the same level, i spite that more people have possibility to have children from a purely economical point of view.
- We have expected that the birth rate should remain the same as before. But on the other hand, who could have thought 10 years ago that the world will look like that today?
Questions in the research poll "Are these the reasons to the fact that Swedes wait with having children"
Those who answer the poll should respond on how worrying they believe the following phenomena are:
• Terrorism
• Climate change
• Economical crisis
• Refugee crisis in the world
• High unemployment
• Military conflicts
• Global epidemies
• Weakened democracy
• Growing social stratification
• Political extremism
• Future generation's views on the future
Personality treats that researchers want to ask about will be used to categorize the participants based on to what extent they agree or disagree either the following:
I am
• Extrovert, enthusiastic
• Critical, contesting
• Reliable, disciplined
• Worried, easily upset
• Open for new experience, complex
• Reserved, reticent
• Attractive, warm
• Unorganized, sloppy
• Easy, emotionally stable
• Conventional, not creative
