Как только увижу ссылки на данные - буду тебе сюда подкидывать.

Эти цифры могут быть вполне правдоподобными, но интерпретация их далеко не тривиальна. Во-первых, очень похоже, что банки и прочие кредиторы сознательно отказываются проводить foreclosures при задержках платежей, т.к. это портит их баланс. Кроме того, это технически не всегда просто сделать. Так что смотреть надо не только foreclosures, но и debt delinquencies.

Во-вторых, по-видимому прошел пик банкротстсв по одному типу закладных - т.н. subprime. Но впереди еще пики по другим типам, например, по закладным с возможостью увеличения основной суммы долга и др.

В-третьих, на эту весну пришелся пик пересмотра ставок по ARM. Посколку многие из этих кредитов были выданы в 2005-2006 г., когда ставки были выше, чем сейчас, то пересмотр ставок мог во многих случаях облегчить положение кредитора.

Короче, если интересно, - буду тебе скидывать материалы, какие увижу.

Как я понимаю, subprime - это не кокретный тип закладных, а весьма общая категория, без жестко определенных границ. Границу между subprime и обычной провести трудно.

А вот насчет пересмотра ставок по АРМам - то я где-то видел цифры, что пик их может прийти на август-сентябрь, если не ошибаюсь. Надо будет еще раз посмотреть.

Субпрайм определяется очень точно: это те закладные, которые не проходят по стандартам (около-)государственных агенств - Фанни Мэй, Фредди Мак и Джинни Мэй с точки зрения надёжности заёмщика, loan-to-value и документации. Соответственно, сабпрайм эти агенства не страхуют.

Но тогда в субпрайм попадают и обычные джамбо-лоаны?

довольно легко определить --- это те займы у которых процент больше чем на 75 пунктов отличался в момент выдачи от того, который мог получить человек с хорошей кредитной историей.

Джамбы в прайм не попадают по одному формальному критерию - размеру займа.

Качество заёмщика, loan-to-value и документы могут как удовлетворяющими требования агенств, так и не удовлетворяющими, агенство их всё равно страховать не будет. Честно сказать, не знаю, принято ли называть джамбы "плохого качества" субпраймом. Наверное, да.

А то что такие есть, это точно: ходят легенды про целые улицы в Орандж Каунти, где у домов ценой за миллион в 2006 году парковались сплошные потрёпанные маленькие Хонды и Мазды.

Вполне приличная машина для горничной.

Надо полагать, пик уже реально миновал, поскольку там, как мне кажется, дело ведь не в сезонах, а в истечении льготного периода, когда выплаты резко возрастают. Вопрос сейчас в том, все ли банки обнародовали свои сюрпризы.

Не похоже на правду, о таком переломе тенденции кричали бы все. Да и более подробные репорты особых изменений не показывают. Вот например, данные по маю: http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=4728&accnt=64847

Спасибо! Интересно, что на картинке, которую нашел я, тоже показывается рост в мае - по сравнению с апрелем. А вот по сравнению с мартом - резкое падение.

Но у вашего линка хорошо то, что они объясняют методологию. И картинка по их данным выглядит так:

U.S. Home Foreclosures Rose 48.3 Percent in May (Table)
2008-06-13 05:00 (New York)


By Alex Tanzi
June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Home foreclosures rose 48.3 percent in May from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac Foreclosure report. An estimated one in every 483 homes is in some stage of foreclosure.
Following is a table compiled from the monthly report:
*T
============================================================================
May April March Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov.
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007
============================================================================
Level 261,255 243,353 234,685 223,651 233,001 215,749 201,950
change 17,902 8,668 11,034 -9,350 17,252 13,799 -22,501
YoY% Change 48.3% 64.8% 57.3% 59.8% 57.0% 96.8% 67.8%
MoM% Change 7.4% 3.7% 4.9% -4.0% 8.0% 6.8% -10.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------- Foreclosures --------- 1 for
Default Auction REO Total every #HH MoM% YoY%
US 80,596 106,865 73,794 261,255 483 7.36% 48.32%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
===============================================================
--------- Foreclosures ---------
Default Auction REO Total
===============================================================
Alabama 1 113 388 502
Alaska 0 149 22 171
Arizona 12 8,660 4,287 12,959
Arkansas 79 903 258 1,240
California 41,965 9,728 20,237 71,930
Colorado 9 3,250 2,138 5,397
Connecticut 250 1,291 90 1,631
Delaware 112 0 149 261
DC 38 283 69 390
Florida 7,353 25,736 4,275 37,364
Georgia 69 6,057 4,115 10,241
Hawaii 29 116 17 162
Idaho 463 258 87 808
Illinois 707 6,669 2,294 9,670
Indiana 1,935 1,268 1,695 4,898
Iowa 0 256 194 450
Kansas 243 98 347 688
Kentucky 426 123 196 745
Louisiana 568 0 135 703
Maine 127 102 13 242
Maryland 209 1,749 393 2,351
Massachusett 1,584 2,975 2,117 6,676
Michigan 2,383 5,265 5,144 12,792
Minnesota 27 1,247 930 2,204
Mississippi 0 100 85 185
Missouri 1,961 705 1,566 4,232
Montana 0 125 12 137
Nebraska 243 19 60 322
Nevada 5,035 1,095 2,879 9,009
New Hamp. 0 382 294 676
New Jersey 1,888 4,827 715 7,430
New Mexico 9 378 61 448
New York 817 3,606 850 5,273
N. Carolina 2,412 149 1,225 3,786
N. Dakota 1 0 21 22
Ohio 3,334 3,372 5,589 12,295
Oklahoma 334 525 354 1,213
Oregon 1,040 409 131 1,580
Penn. 1,598 1,064 554 3,216
Rhode Island 0 419 127 546
S. Carolina 246 136 968 1,350
S. Dakota 29 0 1 30
Tennessee 1,206 1,492 1,495 4,193
Texas 157 5,522 4,384 10,063
Utah 95 938 303 1,336
Vermont 0 1 2 3
Virginia 1,136 2,486 1,205 4,827
Washington 5 1,912 581 2,498
W. Virginia 0 33 9 42
Wisconsin 461 846 701 2,008
Wyoming 0 28 32 60

===============================================================
Note: RealtyTrac's report includes properties in all three phases of
foreclosure: Pre-foreclosures - Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Foreclosures - Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, (REO) or properties (that have been re-purchased by a bank).

Report comments: RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its May 2008 U.S.
Foreclosure Market Report?, which shows foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- were reported on
261,255 properties during the month, a 7 percent increase from the previous month and a 48 percent increase from May 2007. The report also shows one in every 483 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the month, the highest monthly foreclosure rate since RealtyTrac began issuing the report in January 2005.

"May was the third straight month where we've seen a month-to-month increase in foreclosure activity and the 29th straight month we've seen a year-over-year increase,? said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. ?The nationwide rate of increase for default notices and foreclosure auction notices slowed in May, with default notices up just 1 percent from the previous month and auction notices down 3 percent from the previous month. However, bank repossessions continued to surge in May -- posting a double-digit percentage increase from the previous month and more than twice the number reported in May
2007 -- which pushed the total inventory of bank-owned REOs in our database to more than 700,000.?

Nevada, California, Arizona post top state foreclosure rates

With one in every 118 households receiving a foreclosure filing in May, Nevada posted the highest state foreclosure rate for the 17th consecutive month. Foreclosure filings were reported on a total of 9,009 Nevada properties, an increase of nearly 24 percent from the previous month and a 72 percent increase from May 2007.

California foreclosure activity in May increased 11 percent from the previous month and 81 percent from May 2007, helping the state continue to register the nation's second highest state foreclosure rate. One in every 183 California households received a foreclosure filing during the month, a rate that was 2.6 times the national average.

Arizona's May foreclosure rate -- one in every 201 households received a foreclosure filing during the month -- ranked third highest among the states for the second month in a row. Arizona foreclosure activity increased nearly
12 percent from the previous month and almost 119 percent from May 2007.

One in every 228 Florida households received a foreclosure filing in May, giving it the fourth highest foreclosure rate among the states. Michigan foreclosure activity in May increased nearly 25 percent from the previous month, helping the state's foreclosure rate to jump to fifth highest among the states after ranking No. 9 the previous month. One in every 353 Michigan households received a foreclosure filing in May.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the top 10 were Georgia, Colorado, Massachusetts, Ohio and New Jersey.

California, Florida, Arizona report highest foreclosure totals

Foreclosure filings were reported on 71,930 California properties, 37,364 Florida properties and 12,959 Arizona properties, the three highest state totals in May. Michigan was not far behind Arizona, with 12,792 properties receiving foreclosure filings during the month.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 12,295 Ohio properties in May, the fifth highest state total despite a nearly 7 percent decrease from May 2007.
With one in every 410 households receiving a foreclosure filing, Ohio's foreclosure rate ranked No. 9 among the states and was above the national average.

Georgia foreclosure activity increased 11 percent from the previous month and 23 percent from May 2007, giving the state 10,241 properties with foreclosure filing in May -- the nation's sixth highest total. And with one in every 378 Georgia households receiving a foreclosure filing during the month, the state's foreclosure rate also ranked No. 6 among the states.

Other states in the top 10 for total properties with filings were Texas, Illinois, Nevada and New Jersey.

California and Florida cities account for 9 of top 10 metro rates

For the second month in a row, California and Florida cities accounted for nine out of the top 10 metropolitan foreclosure rates among the 230 metropolitan areas tracked in the report. Seven California cities were in the top 10, led by Stockton in the top spot. One in every 75 Stockton area households received a foreclosure filing in May -- more than six times the national average. Other California cities in the top 10 were Merced at No. 3, Modesto at No. 4, Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 5, Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 7, Bakersfield at No. 8, and Sacramento at No. 9.

The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area in Florida registered the second highest metro foreclosure rate in May, with one in every 79 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the month. The other Florida metro area in the top 10 was Port Lucie-Fort Pierce at No. 10.

Las Vegas was the only city outside of California and Florida with a foreclosure rate ranking among the top 10. One in every 96 Las Vegas households received a foreclosure filing in May, more than five times the national average and No. 6 among the metro areas.

Metro areas with foreclosure rates among the top 20 included Phoenix at No. 12, Detroit at No. 14, San Diego at No. 17 and Miami at No. 19.

Report methodology

The RealtyTrac Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the month -- broken out by type of filing at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level. RealtyTrac's report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default -- Notice of Default
(NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction -- Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during the month -- which is extremely rare -- only the most recent filing is counted in the report. The report also checks if the same type of document was filed against a property in a previous month. If so, and if that previous filing occurred within the estimated foreclosure timeframe for the state the property is in, the report does not count the property in the current month.

SOURCE: RealtyTrac

--Editor: Alex Tanzi

Я тут на днях по своей надобности общался с местным силиконовым риэлтером, и сказал мне риэлтер, что дело идёт к стангации, по крайней мере, на нашем локальном рынке: все, кто попал под кризис (т.е. не тянул тех кредитов, что взял) уже продались/обанкротились, а остальные не хотят выставляться по нынешним ценам.

На мой взгляд, это коррелирует с картинкой.