Defining Defeat and Victory in Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=4q_HAWEPGC4April 21, 2022
The Jamestown FoundationEvery passing day of the war inflicts more losses on Ukraine's economy, its civilian and military infrastructure, and its population. Russian forces have seized additional, large chunks of Ukrainian territories. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian army can still roll back the enemy and win the war with adequate levels of Western support, including heavy offensive weaponry and training of Ukrainian personnel. Unless such support is delivered without further delay, an exhausted Ukraine would be forced to accept an armistice on Russian-imposed terms. The ongoing "peace" negotiations with Russia already point in that direction.
Even if Ukraine holds the now-existing front lines, the outward impression of a military stalemate is misleading because the front lines cut across Ukraine's own territory. A ceasefire-in-place would allow Russian forces to entrench in the newly occupied territories, and Russia could use that military fait accompli to extort far-reaching political concessions from Ukraine. In this situation, military stalemate does not spell a balanced political compromise but means Ukraine's defeat and even de facto partition along existing front lines. An armistice in present conditions could amount to a Minsk Three, but on a grand scale. This would, moreover, signify a triumph of Putin's Russia over the West writ large.
The United States and NATO allies can turn the situation around by enabling Ukraine to fight the West's and Ukraine's battle, which is one and the same battle. Ukraine's resolve offers the West this one-time chance to defeat Putin's Russia.
Featuring Vladimir Socor Senior Fellow, The Jamestown Foundation
Andrei Illarionov Russian economist and former advisor (2000-2005) to President Vladimir Putin
Moderator Margarita Assenova Senior Fellow, The Jamestown Foundation