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Пишет stereo_sanctity ([info]stereo_sanctity)
@ 2023-11-14 01:45:00


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Музыка:John Frusciante -- To Record Only Water For Ten Days (Full Album, 2001)

Why Israel Was Unprepared
Пише оглядач forbes у справах близького сходу, турок Melik Kaylan,
про те що теперішне ізраїльське керівництво (Лікуд) занадто довірилося москві в процесі
так званого обміну розвідувальною інформацією в останні роки, за що і розплатилося
в момент коли москва потрапила в безпосередню залежність від тегерана:

For some years now, Israel and Russia have developed surprisingly strong bonds, notably under Netanyahu, with a great deal of Russian money washing around. During the same period (last dozen years or more), Israel seemed to have uninterrupted access to clandestine knowledge of hostile Iranian activities inside Syria, weapons transfers, troop movements, bomb factories and the like, suspiciously early. Enough to neutralize them each and every time, consistently and unerringly, with precise timing before they posed a threat, so often that the world took it for granted. Russians always stood aside – no use of air defenses, no retribution. And this in Syria, a client state. It suited Moscow that Syria became ever more dependent and that Iran couldn't challenge or share the Kremlin's power over Damascus.




Далі про те що Abraham Accords були червоною ганчіркою для іранського режиму, і мулли
почали готуватися до війни одразу після того як Бахрейн та ОАЕ потоваришували з Ізраїлем:

...


Then two things happened, game-changers both. The Abraham Accords and war in Ukraine. The first no doubt angered both Moscow and Tehran, as it potentially excluded the two from the future of the Middle East. But especially the Mullahs who didn't care about cultivating Netanyahu or Trump.
If we look at the timeline, the September 2020 Accords happened only three years ago. Hardly enough time to build or arm all the extra tunnels quietly, the ones needed for a major attack. But the negotiations took at least two years before the signing and were scarcely kept successfully secret, so the Iran/Hamas axis had five or more years to prepare. Now, that's a more realistic timeline. As soon as the Mullahs heard of the planned accords, they likely started counter-planning something like the Hamas attack as a spoiler of the potential Arab-Israeli detente. As for the Kremlin, they saw no harm in the Iranian preparations, for now. They could leak it at any time.



Незважаючи на позицію тегерану, трагедії можна було б уникнути якби ізраїльска сторона збирала
власну розвідувальну інформацію щодо майбутнього вторгнення, але Лікуд довірився московському
співробітництву та не чекав зради від гебні:



Then came Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine and Moscow grew highly dependent on Iran suddenly for arms and drones. Suddenly, because the Kremlin never expected a multi-year attritional war. When Tehran stepped up, the Mullahs surely insisted on a quid pro quo. “Here's our condition: you let us wreck the Abraham Accords. Which means we agree to give you drones for Ukraine, but you must stop informing Israel about threats from us.

Moscow no doubt had quietly kept the option to leak Hamas details to Israel at any time closer to maturity. And, to repeat, Tel Aviv had grown dependent on early warnings from Moscow especially in Syria. But suddenly the equation changed. Putin was desperate. He couldn't risk losing Tehran's alliance and weapons supply. He had to accede to their condition. And even help them set up the global cyberwar dimension of the conflict ahead of time. (The Israeli disinfo analytics company Cybara calculated that, within 48 hours of Hamas attacking, some %25 of social media commentary came from pre-prepared false accounts – a scale of campaign beyond Iran's cyber experience. In short, Israel had neglected to follow the myriad tiny indicators of build-up in Gaza because Tel Aviv assumed that Putin would inform them as he had done for many years of Iranian machinations. This time he didn't.



Цитати звідси:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2023/11/13/why-israel-was-unprepared-its-all-about-iran-russia-ukraine/?sh=2fc1a3c239e0

Ще є ранішня стаття, тієї ж тематики:

Evil Empire Strikes Back

Матеріали ці, звісно, виключно спекуляція автора-оглядача, хоча
виглядає досить логічно та пояснює деякі досіль дивні факти, як то
чому ізраїльска розвідка не побачила підготовку ірану та хамасу
і чому терористична атака стала несподіванкою для Лікуд.

Ще ось такий лінк на огляд forbes минулого року про Лікуд від іншого автора: Why Israel Became A Safe Haven For Russian Billionaires