SZG

Russian Orientalist: Wealthy Arab States Ready To Bankroll West`s War With Syria
Osobaya Bukva
Sunday, June 10, 2012

Interview with Said Gafurov of the Institute of Applied Oriental and African Studies by Sergey Shurlov, Nina Lebedeva, and Aleksandr Gazov; date and place not given: “Said Gafurov: `It Is Necessary To Be Prepared for Arab Sheikhs To Want To Buy A War in Syria.` What Does the West Seek in Syria, Having Ganged Up Against the Regime of Bashir al-Asad?”

The Western countries have clearly set themselves the task: to return at any cost to Africa. And for this, it is very important to turn the Mediterranean Seainto a NATO lake. And only two countries remain before this is achieved: Syriaand Algeria. It is believed that the only factor restraining the West -- above all, the leading countries of Europe -- from beginning combat operations inSyria is the budget deficit. However, if any of the rich Near East states declares itself ready to purchase a very large sum`s worth of British and French state debt securities, the funds for this war will appear. It would remain for London and Paris only to convince Berlin. Well, and the Germans are accountants by nature. Here they could well say: Go for it.

(Osobaya Bukva ) Is it possible to determine, on the basis of the publicly available information, who organized the massacre in Hula after all: the Syrian Army, pro-government Alawi paramilitary formations, or the insurrectionists themselves, with the aim of nudging external forces into stepping up the pressure on al-Asad`s regime?

(Gafurov) Without a doubt, this is a provocation by the opposition. Already by February it had been agreed that there would be no military solution to the problem at all in the province of Idlib. Evidently, a solution similar to what happened in our country in Chechnya, when President Akhmad-Khadzhi Kadyrov came to power was proposed. That is to say, there was an absolutely clear and fairly well-known position that they did not even hide from foreigners. The country`s government was not preparing, did not want, and did not intend, to go to war. It was implied that precisely in this place there would be no combat operations. Nevertheless, combat operations occurred there -- an obvious provocation.

The main thing now is to keep calm and to demand that the Syrian military prosecutor`s office carries out an investigation, preferably with the assistance of international experts. Naturally, they will not agree to outside monitoring, but they will ensure the maximum openness, glasnost, and cooperation with foreigners. Therefore, it seems to me, the main goal of Russia and the international community should be the maximum openness of this investigation. It is desirable to send several experienced international lawyers there to investigate events. I am prepared to assist the reception of the appropriate delegation personally. Of course, there will be questions of security there, but all the same, they are prepared to receive the help of international military justice.

Let me repeat once more: This is indeed a provocation, but a successful provocation. It is perfectly obvious that only the opposition has gained, and that the government has lost. And to think that the government is so crazy as to turn the whole world against it is ridiculous and simply not serious. The position of Russia and China, which they are demonstrating, and which is by and large supported by a whole series of Latin American and Asian countries, including Syria`s Arab neighbors, is that it is necessary to carry out an investigation with the maximum objectivity and with the maximum calm, and to find those culpable for what happened.

This must be interpreted as a war crime, and that means it is essential to search for the culprits. In actual fact, this is not very difficult. If a normal, full investigation is carried out, it is possible to determine the munitions from which the shots were fired. The international community is capable of providing Syria with the necessary technical support.

That the international community does not want this is another matter.

(Osobaya Bukva ) And what goals does the international community pursue, in your view?

(Gafurov) No one wants democracy in Syria, because they all understand that if democratic elections took place in the country right now, Bashir al-Asad would win. There is simply no one to put up against him. Moreover, he would almost definitely win in the first round. Maybe, of course, if the votes were distributed between 30 minor candidates, there would have to be a second round. But then it would completely resemble a show of idiots. And the West`s aim is not to allow the survival of al-Bashir at any event.

And the global geopolitical goal is as follows. Up till 2008 Syria was conducting a very interesting policy: It was openly cooperating with Russia in everything, apart from one sphere -- hydrocarbons and power engineering. This position was implemented very coherently by Abdul Halim Khaddam, the republic`s vice president, who later fell into disgrace and fled to Paris in unclear circumstances. Well, and after him, the decision was adopted that sectors would be given to those who offered the most advantageous terms.

And at this point it was not Gazrpom that turned up, even, but Stroytransgaz -- that is to say, the office that builds the gas pipeline. A project for expanding the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline toward the Mediterranean port ofBaniyas arose. This is an old oil pipe: It was built back in the forties. Right now it is effectively planned to build a new one in its place. To build a gas pipe and, what is more important, to stretch it as far as the northern Iranian oil. That is to say, in Iran there is southern oil and there is northern oil. The southern oil is in the region of Abadan, and the northern oil is the same basin as Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan... The result is the very convenient geographical possibility of building an oil pipeline for this North Iranian oil, including Iraqi oil, and right in the Mediterranean Sea.

But the Third EU Energy Package adopted last year categorically insists on the diversification of suppliers. Because Gazprom has already built Nord Stream; we have a steam though Belarus, and a stream through Ukraine; and South Stream is under construction. There is the Black Sea (route) -- via Turkey andIstanbul. But this is not to their liking. They do not want Russia to obtain yet another access point for supplying gas to Europe. Certain forces are not interested in this. And these forces have proved to be very influential right now -- above all in the British government, but also, as has become clear, in the new French government. Notice that the most peaceful position, after all, is being taken by Germany, which is far more interested in receiving a stable supply of gas than having the possibility of milking each of the suppliers one by one.

(Osobaya Bukva ) The aims are clear. But will the Western countries, given the kind of budget deficit that has formed because of the euro zone crisis, be able to launch a war against Syria?

(Gafurov) The budget deficit is an important factor, but far more important is whether sources exist to cover it. And if any of the rich countries (the Near East states, for example) declares itself ready to purchase a large sum`s worth of British and French state debt securities, the latter will acquire the funds for this war. And we will see what happens after that. In three or four years time there will be new elections, and the government will change, and everything will be different, and inflation will rise, and in short, apres nous le deluge. And I have no confidence that such talks are not being carried out right now, and that major petroleum-processing countries are not discussing the question of the possibility of buying up a series of debt securities from the major NATO countries.

And of course, there is also Turkey -- also a member of NATO. And there the situation is very complex, because it is convenient for the current Turkish government to resolve very many internal problems at the expense of conflict with Syria. However, the entire Turkish people are against this. The Army is simply afraid of this, because Alawis constitute a very large proportion of the population in Turkey. This is another branch, a different school of Alawis than the Syrian one, but all the same, they are all brothers and kinsmen. They live in regions that are relatively calm, but are close to the regions where rebellious Kurds live and near to Syria itself. And if that region erupts, the Turkish generals would have a very hard time of it.

And the Turkish Islamists, carrying out their fairly moderate Islamist reforms, have discovered that they are running into very strong opposition from Alawis. Earlier, this fact was simply not taken into account by them. You see, the Turkish Alawis concealed their religious affiliation. The last time that they were persecuted officially was in 1826. Since then, it has been customary to deem that they do not exist. But they never went anywhere: They live in their villages and believe in their gods. They frightened nobody and got in nobody`s way. But if the situation flares up now, if they take up arms, the Kurds will acquire a very strong ally.

Moreover, some Western sources have estimated that covert Alawis in Turkeyconstitute 30% of the population. The Turkish authorities need to resolve this problem somehow, because they have discovered that, in addition to a secular opposition, they have also acquired an Alawi opposition, an opposition that is pretty obscure and very powerful, and which cannot be broken. And if they lose elections in inland Turkey -- and given this position of the Alawis, this is entirely possible -- they will lose power everywhere. There are also many other problems there that the Turkish government would like to resolve with the aid of war.

But the government wants this, and the Army does not. What is more, the Army is afraid of this. To find themselves against the Kurds, who in such a situation would undoubtedly be supported by Iran, plus the Alawis and a fully competent Syrian Army would be no picnic. Divisions would perish there. I do not doubt, moreover, that in the strategic plane it would be hellishly difficult for them: Combined formations deprived of supplies would find themselves encircled, and I do not know how they would be rescued.

Returning to your question, I can say that Britain and France can finance their budget deficits if someone buys some of their debt securities. And such buyers exist, and I could name them, were it not for a number of considerations. There is one large country and another very small, but rich one. These are absolutely normal investments -- buying debt securities. France`s debt securities have a high rating. In this way, they obtain money for war. No problem convincing parliamentarians: In both Britain and France there are parliamentary majorities. The main problem for them is to convince the Germans. Well, but Germans are accountants by nature. What could they say? They will say: Go for it.

The Western countries have clearly set themselves the task of returning toAfrica, moreover, returning at any price. And for this, it is very important to turn the Mediterranean Sea into a NATO lake. And only two countries remain before this is achieved: Syria and Algeria. With Algeria, they have also already begun. Already Sarkozy`s envoy -- his position is called “human rights envoy,” or something like that -- has officially stated in Algeria, flanked by the opposition, that “the Arab spring has not finished,” and that it will undoubtedly cross to other countries. The Algerians became nervous and bought tanks from Russia, enough to equip a tank division, and a few air defense complexes. In general, “democracy” is also shining on them.

(Osobaya Bukva ) Quite a pessimistic scenario is emerging...

(Gafurov) What I am saying is more bad than good, but I am personally optimistic, thanks to the position of Russia and China. Especially if you read carefully the latest leading articles in Renmin Ribao : They are very trenchant. Of course, a leading article is a leading article, and paper doesn`t refuse ink. But the Chinese are expressing their dissatisfaction very forcefully. And if no one pays heed to their dissatisfaction, they could react quite firmly.

Only very recently an agreement was reached that the Chinese will help Europe to extricate itself from its debt crisis, and if they act very improperly with them now, China could revise its position. I think that finance ministers are putting very strong pressure both on the new French president and on Cameron: They must calculate precisely whether what the Arab sheikhs will give them will be enough to cover the funds that the Chinese will take away. I do not know the exact figures, but I do not doubt that this would be a very serious blow. Well, and as for us, we will have to be ready for the Arab sheikhs wanting to buy a war -- let us call a spade a spade.

But we too are not keeping silent. And I wish once again to recall that this is not just a question of Russia and China: Many countries are behind us. This factor is for some reason continually hushed up. The absolute majority in the United Nations support the position of Russia and China, and not that of theUnited States and West Europe.

(Osobaya Bukva ) That is to say, the situation right now is one in which anything at all could happen?

(Gafurov) I myself am, on the whole, optimistic. You ask me: but what would you stake on? I would put it like this: on the peaceful solution of the Syrian problem. The majority in Syria have already made up their minds on this choice. They have suffered great losses already: Every family has members who have been killed.

(Osobaya Bukva ) Lastly, I would like you to clarify: Do Qatar and Saudi Arabiaunderstand that the trouble that is brewing in this region right now could spread without ceremony to the entire Arab world, and no one knows what would happen there?

(Gafurov) There are very strong diplomats there. They calculate everything, and they have already gained a lot of time. Qatar believes that it has created itself the ideal defense by allowing American heavy bombers to be stationed on its territory. It believes that this will save it from everything.

And the Saudis have a very flexible, very clever, and very complex policy. With the Saudis, the path to reconciliation with the Syrians is open. I have not heard that it will be used, but it exists. You see, the major building contractors of Saudi Arabia and Syria are close relatives. They are very serious, very influential people, so that there is always the possibility of entering into direct contact with one another.

I think that all these scenarios are being calculated there, because the people there are very cautious. Well, and they have money too, admittedly, a great deal of it.

(Description of Source: Moscow Osobaya Bukva in Russian -- Website carrying political commentaries; site`s ownership and affiliations are unclear; URL: http://www.specletter.com)

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