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Aleksandr Kots interview with economist and orientalist Said Gafurov: “Deputy Chief Editor of `VVP` Magazine Said Gafurov: `Only Budget Problems Are Restraining West From War WithSyria!`”; date, place not stated

On the Komsomolskaya Pravda TV channel the well-known economist and orientalist Said Gafurov has explained why the United States and Europe have latched on to Syria so much in an attempt to overthrow the regime there.

Al-Asad Does Not Want Blood

(Kots) The opposition combat detachments in Syria fighting against President Al-Asad are already calling on the United Nations and NATO to introduce an air exclusion zone above the country so that it is easier to carry out bombing. Syrian ambassadors are being recalled from Europe, and in response the diplomatic missions of the United States, Britain, France, Switzerland, Spain, and Italy are being withdrawn from Damascus... A big war in the Middle Eastalready seems inevitable. The question is, when?

(Gafurov) Analogy is not proof. Here it should be noted that the Syrian national character has one interesting feature -- they know how to lose, in the sense that they know how to hold on. All their rivals understand this very well. Every opponent of Syria hopes that one of his allies, and not he, will bear the brunt of the war. The Syrian army is strong and mobilized and it has great reserves. On their main territory, if we exclude the relatively wild, sparsely inhabited regions, the Syrian authorities are absolutely in control of the situation. During the 7 May elections, I traveled to Al-Suwayda, a small, compact province 30 km from Da`ra -- one of the main centers of the fighting. We got into our car and drove peacefully for 100 km. There were three checkpoints on the entire road, the soldier boys were vigilant and good-natured.

((Kots) Does that not seem a little flippant? If we take the events in Al-Hula, and according to some figures up to 700 gunmen went there -- where was the army, where were the border guards, what kind of control are we talking about?

(Gafurov) Under the Annan plan the army is taking no part in the fighting, it is in barracks. The Syrian army consists of 18-year-old boys, draftees. The Syrian army political directorate is constantly engaged in one and the same thing -- every day it holds political classes, demanding the strictest observance of the laws of war -- taking prisoners, the Geneva Convention, not using torture. That is being dinned into the 18-year-old boys. The officers are also young -- 25-year-olds. Nevertheless the army is enraged. The voices of the supporters of a strong-arm solution are being heard very loudly. They are already saying openly: Enough of the president `s wishy-washy liberalism! We will resolve the situation in 24 hours in the military respect. That immediately reminded me of our own Pavel Grachev and his statement -- “taking Groznyy with a single airborne regiment.” But the Syrian Government wants to avoid heavy bloodshed at any cost.

Unfortunately, we have on several occasions heard statements like the following in the Middle East: “The army is mobilized and combat-ready,” “it is more devoted than ever to the head of state,” and as a result... We have seen the results in Iraq and Libya...

War on Credit

(Kots) It seems to us that the Syrian authorities have adopted a rather toothless position. Particularly against the background of the carnage in Al-Hula, which has already been compared to the massacre in Racak -- the Yugoslav village with which the NATO Balkans operation began. Does the West need a war in Syria at all?

(Gafurov) We do not know whether Syria has enormous stocks of oil, as the Syrians claim. But we know for sure that the “Total,” “British Petroleum,” and “Shell” companies and the Americans have thrown them huge investments in geological prospecting... For the Americans, incidentally, there would be no greater joy than having their European allies assume the main brunt of a military operation. The United States has big budget problems , while NATO has a joint budget. Nor should we forget that in 2011 Europe adopted a package of docu ments called the “third energy package.” It provides for the diversification of gas suppliers. This package does not discuss the diversification of pipelines. It discusses the diversification of suppliers. We have built “North Stream” and will build “South Stream” and we have a flow viaUkraine and via Belarus. In theory we could dispatch hydrocarbons via Norway. But Syria is the natural, shortest, and indeed only route for the delivery of Iranian gas. After all, we have projects which have been under discussion for a long time for constructing pipes for oil and gas from Northern Iran, via Mosulin Iraq and Kurdistan, to the Syrian port of Banias. But Russia`s participation does not suit the West. And indeed some Persian Gulf countries are very reluctant for Gazstroyeksport to construct this pipeline. The only thing currently restraining the West from a strike against Syria is their budget problems. But if some Middle East monarchs promise to buy up the European NATO countries` state debts for a couple of years ahead, the problem will be resolved. (Gafurov ends)

Expert`s Comment

Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems:

“This is our last stronghold in the Middle East.”

“Above all two geopolitical strategies have clashed in Syria -- one of them being the American strategy, whose thrust is to upturn all of North Africa and create an arc of instability from the Balkans via Morocco and as far asPakistan. Syria and Iran today are major bottlenecks, a thorn in the United States` side, because they are preventing it from linking the unstable North Arica to Afghanistan and then on to Russia`s underbelly -- Central Asia.Russia, however, wants stability in this region. And Russia wants to have its own strongholds in the Middle East. Because that region is immediately adjacent to our borders. Strikes against Iran and a war in Syria are an important step toward blowing up Iran and will create a kind of geopolitical conflagration for us.

“We are being hemmed in in the North Caucasus and then, through the pro-American regimes, through their alliance with radical Islam, they are pushing aside our interests -- economic, political, geopolitical and, of course, military. We are already losing our influence in this region together with the “Arab revolutions.” And that means we are suffering damage. And we could lose everything there if we also surrender Syria. This is a threat to our security. Our comprehensive, geopolitical security. Aware of this, Russia is trying to counter it, so far timidly and restrainedly, in some places in alliance withChina, elsewhere on its own, to prevent the destruction of our last stronghold in the greater Middle East.”

(Description of Source: Moscow Komsomolskaya Pravda Online in Russian -- Website of mass-circulation daily owned by the YeSN company of Grigoriy Berezkin, who has links to energy projects and the Russian Railways; it sometimes serves as a vehicle for Kremlin officials, security; URL: http://www.kp.ru/)

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