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Free Intelligence Briefing

Originally Posted on January 9, 2004

Battle for the FSU: Cold War in Miniature

Summary

Russia's attempt to resurrect itself as a world power and U.S.
plans to spread influence into Moscow's very neighborhood
inevitably will lead to a serious conflict. Soviet successor
states will be the main battlefield in this geopolitical clash.
The results will be mixed, at least in 2004.



Analysis

What might be called a resumption of the Cold War between Russia
and the United States will emerge in 2004, but it will be limited
mostly to former Soviet Union (FSU) territory, where these powers
will actively compete for control over the vast region. Moscow's
plan to strengthen its position in the countries immediately
surrounding Russia will collide with Washington's desire to
counter that geopolitical move. By the same token, Washington's
plan to expand its strategic outreach into the FSU will meet
major opposition from Moscow.

Both sides can expect only partial success in this renewed Cold
War: Neither will be able to completely push its geopolitical
opponent out of the region. The main U.S. advantage -- its
capabilities as a superpower -- will be matched by Russia's prime
advantages -- its location in the region and its close,
longstanding ties with FSU states.

While Moscow's interests in the FSU have clashed with
Washington's for years, they have not amounted to a serious
conflict since the Cold War ended. With its weakness following
the fall of communism and the presence of some pro-U.S. figures
in the government, Moscow did not represent a geopolitical
challenge to Washington under President Boris Yeltsin -- or
during the early part of Vladimir Putin's term -- nor did it want
to pose a challenge to U.S. strategic expansion into the region.

This began to change in 2003. The results of this change will be
reflected in a renewed cold war over the former Soviet region in
2004 and beyond.

There are three main reasons for this. First, having solidified
his grip over Russia -- through winning parliamentary elections
and tackling oligarchs -- and entertaining the idea of returning
Russia to the ranks of great powers, Putin now has the ability
and the will to make Russia's geopolicy more assertive and
robust, something post-Soviet Russia has never managed to do.

Second, Russia sees U.S. influence and forces creeping ever
closer to Russia's borders on all sides. This will force Moscow
to oppose the United States in the fear that if Washington is not
stopped, Russia -- isolated and pushed away from other Soviet
successor states -- would fall prey to U.S. global ambitions.

Third, for its part, Washington is well aware of Putin's attempts
to reverse Russia's odds and thinks it must deal with Moscow
before it rises from its knees, in order to prevent Moscow from
being able to challenge global U.S. supremacy. To achieve this,
Washington must negate Moscow's influence in the last region
where it exists: the FSU.

We will begin to see the geopolitical paths of Moscow and
Washington crossing more and more frequently as they try to
defeat each other on the geopolitical battlefield of the FSU.

The main targets in the upcoming U.S.-Russian struggle will be
FSU governments that the rivals will try to either topple or
defend from ouster, depending upon the geopolitical alignment of
the government in question. Some FSU governments will try to
cooperate with both Moscow and Washington, but this will not save
them from being subjected to pressure. Despite their statements
to the contrary, it appears Moscow and Washington are engaged in
a zero-sum game in the region.

The stakes in this mini-cold war are higher for Russia. If Russia
were pushed out of the FSU, it would lose almost everything: It
would become fully isolated and irrelevant, and the prospect of
suffering the fate of the Soviet Union would become very real.
If, however, Russia manages to improve its role in the FSU versus
the United States and other outlying regional players, it might
become a good jumping-off point for a Russian return to center
stage in global geopolitics.

Although not critical, the stakes for Washington are also high.
If Washington fails, Russia will rise. And if this happens,
Russia ultimately could threaten the United States' global
hegemony.

If, however, Washington takes over as the dominant power in the
FSU, Russia might be geopolitically finished, never again able to
threaten global U.S. interests. Should it weaken Russia to the
point that resurgence is hopeless, the United States would be
better positioned to deal with other existing and potential
challengers. A tamed Russia likely would have to help the United
States tackle a rising China, for example.

Definite success in this miniature cold war is not likely for
either player in 2004. We expect that some FSU governments will
fall and that their successors will reverse their foreign policy.
Other FSU governments, however, will withstand the pressure and
continue pretty much on their current course.

We intend to analyze and forecast what and where in the FSU
Moscow and Washington will gain -- as well as what and where they
will lose.