I always thought that the Commonwealth status was first :) I don't doubt that it will be a net receiver of the Federal funds, whether as a Commonwealth or a State. What I meant, is direct participation of the Federal administration (and a consequent "americanization" of the government culture), now limited to Social Security, will be much greater.

By the way, this is pretty interesting (dunno about validity):

"Amount of expected income to the U.S. Treasury from individuals in Puerto Rico because of the Earned Income Credit: $0."
http://www.nationalcenter.org/PuertoRicoFacts898.html

on the other hand:
The same study concluded that if the voters of Puerto Rico, and ultimately Congress, chose statehood, the American taxpayer would see a net reduction in Federal spending in Puerto Rico of between $2.1 and $2.7 billion, with greater savings in the future as the Puerto Rican economy fully realizes its potential as a state. Thus, a change in status potentially could save the taxpayer billions, while continuation of the current status will only result in increasing subsidies over time.

Similarly, the General Accounting Office in 1995, using static analysis, concluded that the Treasury would see a net benefit of $50 million as a result of bringing Puerto Rican American into the Federal income tax system (they currently pay into social security and the unemployment system). As incomes on the Island were to increase as a result of a better economy, Treasury tax revenues would as well.
http://www.lulac.org/Issues/PRstatus/PRDebate.html