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Пишет Journal de Chaource (![[info]](http://lj.rossia.org/img/syndicated.gif){kind=small} lj_chaource)@ 2015-09-14 15:51:00 |
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Refugees or migrants?
[ Continuation of http://chaource.livejournal.com/132566.h
Distribution of migrants to EU by (claimed?) country of origin:
This graph shows only top 10 countries of origin, but the distribution obviously has a fat tail with many more countries contributing a significant fraction of migrants. Syrians are by far not the dominant fraction of migrants. Iraqis, afghans, gypsies from Kosovo, Pakistanian arabs, Ethiopians and other Africans dominate the influx of immigration in the EU at the moment. Most of them are young males:
Yes, there are families in the throng at Keleti. Plenty with young children. But if you stand and take a rough count it is hard not to come to the conclusion that young men are in the overwhelming majority. They have been dressed by charity and have cash for tickets. They want to charge their iPhones, eat more pizza and board their trains.
http://pamelageller.com/2015/09/refugees-i
And most of them know that your chances of getting asylum are higher if you are Syrian:
Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann told radio station Bayern 2 that stricter controls were needed because "many en route here are not really refugees".
"It's got about in the last few days that you are successful if everyone claims to be Syrian," he added.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-341
Surely, the situations in Kosovo, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Africa have been disastrous for years. So why is the immigration spiking now in Germany? I think this is because the German government just told them they will be welcome.
Germany, like all other EU countries, is bound by the Dublin Regulation, which means that anyone seeking asylum in the EU has to lodge their application in the first EU country they enter.
On 21 August, Germany suspended this for Syrians, making it easier for people from them to seek asylum.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-341
How do they know this? Through the Internet.
I spoke to two young men from Bangladesh. There were Pakistanis and Sudanese. I even met a family from Nepal. Syrians are the highest number followed by Iraqis and some Jordanians and they all seem amply versed in the ways and means of securing a passage to Germany.
Social media is the one connecting link. Everyone either has an iPhone or knows someone else who does. They use them to talk to family members on the other side of the world or network with each other sharing information. It also helps them to know what lies ahead.
http://pamelageller.com/2015/09/refugees-i
This is actually looking more hopeful than I thought. A population of able-bodied young males who keep strong ties with families back home is a classic pattern of economic immigration. They will first find out if they could build a new life in the new country, and if successful, bring their families along. If not, they will leave elsewhere. If Germany makes the right political decisions about what economic possibilities to grant these people, there may be an unprecedented economic growth as new immigrants start working and open businesses. However, the existing European system has a large socialist component (high taxes, detailed regulations for businesses, strong trade unions, high minimum wage, mandated long vacations, etc.) that is not conducive to economic growth and will have to be dismantled. If it is not even partially dismantled, economic disaster will ensue. However, the young males - which are the overwhelming majority of today's migrants - will be fine: they will simply leave, as more than 300,000 Serbian refugees to Germany left for home back in the 1990s. The economic disaster will strike the poor strata of German population as well as the true refugees who have nowhere to go.
[ Continuation of http://chaource.livejournal.com/132566.h
Distribution of migrants to EU by (claimed?) country of origin:
This graph shows only top 10 countries of origin, but the distribution obviously has a fat tail with many more countries contributing a significant fraction of migrants. Syrians are by far not the dominant fraction of migrants. Iraqis, afghans, gypsies from Kosovo, Pakistanian arabs, Ethiopians and other Africans dominate the influx of immigration in the EU at the moment. Most of them are young males:
Yes, there are families in the throng at Keleti. Plenty with young children. But if you stand and take a rough count it is hard not to come to the conclusion that young men are in the overwhelming majority. They have been dressed by charity and have cash for tickets. They want to charge their iPhones, eat more pizza and board their trains.
http://pamelageller.com/2015/09/refugees-i
And most of them know that your chances of getting asylum are higher if you are Syrian:
Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann told radio station Bayern 2 that stricter controls were needed because "many en route here are not really refugees".
"It's got about in the last few days that you are successful if everyone claims to be Syrian," he added.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-341
Surely, the situations in Kosovo, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Africa have been disastrous for years. So why is the immigration spiking now in Germany? I think this is because the German government just told them they will be welcome.
Germany, like all other EU countries, is bound by the Dublin Regulation, which means that anyone seeking asylum in the EU has to lodge their application in the first EU country they enter.
On 21 August, Germany suspended this for Syrians, making it easier for people from them to seek asylum.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-341
How do they know this? Through the Internet.
I spoke to two young men from Bangladesh. There were Pakistanis and Sudanese. I even met a family from Nepal. Syrians are the highest number followed by Iraqis and some Jordanians and they all seem amply versed in the ways and means of securing a passage to Germany.
Social media is the one connecting link. Everyone either has an iPhone or knows someone else who does. They use them to talk to family members on the other side of the world or network with each other sharing information. It also helps them to know what lies ahead.
http://pamelageller.com/2015/09/refugees-i
This is actually looking more hopeful than I thought. A population of able-bodied young males who keep strong ties with families back home is a classic pattern of economic immigration. They will first find out if they could build a new life in the new country, and if successful, bring their families along. If not, they will leave elsewhere. If Germany makes the right political decisions about what economic possibilities to grant these people, there may be an unprecedented economic growth as new immigrants start working and open businesses. However, the existing European system has a large socialist component (high taxes, detailed regulations for businesses, strong trade unions, high minimum wage, mandated long vacations, etc.) that is not conducive to economic growth and will have to be dismantled. If it is not even partially dismantled, economic disaster will ensue. However, the young males - which are the overwhelming majority of today's migrants - will be fine: they will simply leave, as more than 300,000 Serbian refugees to Germany left for home back in the 1990s. The economic disaster will strike the poor strata of German population as well as the true refugees who have nowhere to go.
