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Пишет Journal de Chaource (![[info]](http://lj.rossia.org/img/syndicated.gif){kind=small} lj_chaource)@ 2020-06-03 20:29:00 |
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Lies, damn lies, and statistics: deaths by police in the U.S.
According to https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/ police violence accounts for about 1000 deaths per year. This is about twice the official data about police-caused deaths by shooting ("justifiable homicide by weapon, law enforcement"), see table https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-5.xls
The most notorious recent police killing was not by shooting. It could be that about twice as many are killed without shooting, but most likely, the police departments report reduced numbers of homicide by police, while the activist groups report inflated numbers. Nevertheless, let us accept the inflated numbers of the activists - for the sake of the argument.
Total U.S. homicides are about 15000 per year.
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-1.xls
In of those homicides, about 7800 or 52% of victims are black.
That number, however, includes multiple victims and multiple offenders. There are about 6000 deaths where there is a single victim and a single offender. See table 3: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-3.xls
Among those deaths, almost half are perpetrated by blacks, and almost half of the victims are also black.
About 44% of police officers who shoot are white.
https://law.yale.edu/sites/default/files/area/workshop/leo/leo16_fryer.pdf
(Note in parentheses:
In total, about 13% of all police officers are black. https://datausa.io/profile/soc/police-officers#demographicsBlacks are 12% of the U.S. population.
Blacks are 12% of the U.S. population.
So, black police officers are about 2.5 or 3 times more likely to shoot and kill, just as black civilians are.)
We find that out of all 15000 annual homicides, about 1000 are by police (a possibly inflated estimate due to bias of the actists, but let's accept that number).
Also, about half of the victims of police violence are black, and about half of the shooting police officers are black. So, about 250 blacks were killed by white policemen, compared with about 7800 total black victims of homicide. White policemen kill about 3% of all black victims of homicide.
Not all of the killings of blacks by whites are due to racist prejudice. Let us believe that there is about 20% "unexplained" excess of police violence against blacks as compared to whites.
https://law.yale.edu/sites/default/files/area/workshop/leo/leo16_fryer.pdf
Let us also assume that the 20% excess is entirely due to racist prejudice (this has not been shown in the paper). So, we have about 20% excess death out of 250 victims, which is about 50 blacks who die each year due to racism. This is 0.6% of the total victims of homicide.
We conclude that the "entire progressive humanity" (to use a Soviet propaganda cliché) is currently protesting the 0.6% of the black victims of homicide, which happened due to assumed (but not actually demonstrated) racism of white police towards blacks.
The progressive activists never protest the main bulk - 99.4% - of the victims, both men and women, who are killed every year for reasons not related to white racism, the vast majority being killed by other blacks according to table 3.
If, by a stroke of magic, we eliminate all racist prejudice, we will have reduced the black mortality by 0.6%. If we employ even more magic and somehow prevent every killing of a black person by a white policeman, we would have achieved a mere 3% decrease in the mortality of blacks. 97% murdered blacks would still remain dead.
Conclusion: despite their political posturing, the "entire progressive humanity" does not actually give a damn about black lives.
According to https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/ police violence accounts for about 1000 deaths per year. This is about twice the official data about police-caused deaths by shooting ("justifiable homicide by weapon, law enforcement"), see table https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/
The most notorious recent police killing was not by shooting. It could be that about twice as many are killed without shooting, but most likely, the police departments report reduced numbers of homicide by police, while the activist groups report inflated numbers. Nevertheless, let us accept the inflated numbers of the activists - for the sake of the argument.
Total U.S. homicides are about 15000 per year.
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/
In of those homicides, about 7800 or 52% of victims are black.
That number, however, includes multiple victims and multiple offenders. There are about 6000 deaths where there is a single victim and a single offender. See table 3: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/
Among those deaths, almost half are perpetrated by blacks, and almost half of the victims are also black.
About 44% of police officers who shoot are white.
https://law.yale.edu/sites/default/
(Note in parentheses:
In total, about 13% of all police officers are black. https://datausa.io/profile/soc/police-
Blacks are 12% of the U.S. population.
So, black police officers are about 2.5 or 3 times more likely to shoot and kill, just as black civilians are.)
We find that out of all 15000 annual homicides, about 1000 are by police (a possibly inflated estimate due to bias of the actists, but let's accept that number).
Also, about half of the victims of police violence are black, and about half of the shooting police officers are black. So, about 250 blacks were killed by white policemen, compared with about 7800 total black victims of homicide. White policemen kill about 3% of all black victims of homicide.
Not all of the killings of blacks by whites are due to racist prejudice. Let us believe that there is about 20% "unexplained" excess of police violence against blacks as compared to whites.
https://law.yale.edu/sites/default/
Let us also assume that the 20% excess is entirely due to racist prejudice (this has not been shown in the paper). So, we have about 20% excess death out of 250 victims, which is about 50 blacks who die each year due to racism. This is 0.6% of the total victims of homicide.
We conclude that the "entire progressive humanity" (to use a Soviet propaganda cliché) is currently protesting the 0.6% of the black victims of homicide, which happened due to assumed (but not actually demonstrated) racism of white police towards blacks.
The progressive activists never protest the main bulk - 99.4% - of the victims, both men and women, who are killed every year for reasons not related to white racism, the vast majority being killed by other blacks according to table 3.
If, by a stroke of magic, we eliminate all racist prejudice, we will have reduced the black mortality by 0.6%. If we employ even more magic and somehow prevent every killing of a black person by a white policeman, we would have achieved a mere 3% decrease in the mortality of blacks. 97% murdered blacks would still remain dead.
Conclusion: despite their political posturing, the "entire progressive humanity" does not actually give a damn about black lives.
