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Пишет is3 (![[info]](http://lj.rossia.org/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} is3) |
Это не абсолютные цифры, а "нормализованные":
As the absolute number of excess deaths can be strongly affected by the country’s population size, we normalized the excess mortality estimates by the population size (Table 1). The highest excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants was observed in Peru (290), Bolivia (260), Bulgaria (250), Ecuador (230), Lithuania (230), and Mexico (210). Note that many countries with severe outbreaks that received wide international media attention, such as Italy, Spain, and United Kingdom, had much lower values (Table 1).
The infection-fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is strongly age-dependent (Levin et al., 2020). As the countries differ in their age structure, the expected overall IFR differs between countries. To account for the age structure, we also normalized the excess mortality estimate by the annual baseline mortality, i.e. the expected number of deaths per year without a pandemic event (Table 1). This relative increase (also known as a p-score) was the highest in Peru (73%), Bolivia (56%), Ecuador (52%), and Mexico (39%). These Latin American countries have much younger populations compared to the European and North American countries, which is why the excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants there was similar to some European countries, but the relative increase in mortality was much higher, suggesting much higher COVID-19 prevalence. These Latin American countries were followed by Kazakhstan (22%), Kyrgyzstan (19%), and South Africa (19%).
Вот тут описан метод этой "нормализации" (использовался для корректного сравнения с декларируемыми данными, учитывающим возрастные предпочтения CovID):
https://link.springer.com/article/10.10
As the absolute number of excess deaths can be strongly affected by the country’s population size, we normalized the excess mortality estimates by the population size (Table 1). The highest excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants was observed in Peru (290), Bolivia (260), Bulgaria (250), Ecuador (230), Lithuania (230), and Mexico (210). Note that many countries with severe outbreaks that received wide international media attention, such as Italy, Spain, and United Kingdom, had much lower values (Table 1).
The infection-fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is strongly age-dependent (Levin et al., 2020). As the countries differ in their age structure, the expected overall IFR differs between countries. To account for the age structure, we also normalized the excess mortality estimate by the annual baseline mortality, i.e. the expected number of deaths per year without a pandemic event (Table 1). This relative increase (also known as a p-score) was the highest in Peru (73%), Bolivia (56%), Ecuador (52%), and Mexico (39%). These Latin American countries have much younger populations compared to the European and North American countries, which is why the excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants there was similar to some European countries, but the relative increase in mortality was much higher, suggesting much higher COVID-19 prevalence. These Latin American countries were followed by Kazakhstan (22%), Kyrgyzstan (19%), and South Africa (19%).
Вот тут описан метод этой "нормализации" (использовался для корректного сравнения с декларируемыми данными, учитывающим возрастные предпочтения CovID):
https://link.springer.com/article/10.10
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