GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and President George
W. Bush remain in a tight race for the presidency, with Kerry receiving
support from 49% of likely voters and Bush 48%, according to the latest
CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Oct. 9-10. Independent
candidate Ralph Nader gets 1% of the vote.

Among registered voters, the two major candidates each receive 48%
of the vote, and Nader 1%. These results are virtually identical to
those measured last week in a similar poll, when likely voters were
evenly divided between the two major candidates at 49% each, and
registered voters gave Bush a two-point advantage, 49% to 47%.

Bush Job Approval Slips

An ominous sign for the president is that his overall job approval
has dropped to 47%, and his disapproval rating has climbed to 49%. This
net negative rating of two points contrasts with the 50% approval to 48%
disapproval that Bush received last week, and the 54% to 44% rating he
received in a Sep. 24-26 poll, a week prior to the first presidential
debate.

Political observers see the 50% approval figure as the dividing
point between an incumbent winning or losing the election, though the
historical record is unclear about a president with a job approval near
50%. Successful incumbents since 1950 have had job approval ratings of
at least 54%, while the ratings of unsuccessful candidates have been 45%
or lower.

Consistent with the closeness of the race, 52% of Americans have a
favorable opinion of Kerry, compared with 51% for Bush. Americans feel
about as favorably toward Democratic vice presidential candidate John
Edwards (48%) as they do toward Vice President Dick Cheney (46%), but
Cheney's unfavorable rating (46%) is significantly higher than Edwards'
(37%).

The rating of Edwards represents a 15-point decline in his net
positive score from a Sep. 3-5 poll, when Americans rated him favorably
by 56% to 30%. The other three candidates have experienced smaller
declines in their net positive ratings since early September -- six
points for Bush, two points for Kerry, and four points for Cheney.

Kerry Now Seen as Debate Winner

The latest poll also shows that Americans are more likely to say
that Kerry (45%) rather than Bush (30%) won the second presidential
debate held last Friday evening in St. Louis, with the rest making no
choice (including 10% who said it was a tie, and 14% who expressed no
opinion). Among respondents in the current poll who said they watched
the debate, Kerry wins by 51% to 34%. These results contrast with a CNN/USA
Today/Gallup poll of debate watchers conducted immediately after
the debate on Oct. 8, which found viewers almost evenly divided, 47% to
45% in favor of Kerry.

A similar ballooning of Kerry's margin was found after the first
debate on Sept. 30. The immediate post-debate poll found Kerry the
winner among debate viewers by 53% to 37%. The subsequent poll of all
Americans in the next three days found Kerry's margin surging, with 57%
saying he did better, compared with only 25% who said Bush did better.
And among people in the follow-up poll who said they had watched the
debate, Kerry won by 64% to 27%.

These results suggest that the Kerry campaign won the "spin" contest
that follows the debate -- the efforts by each campaign to characterize
their own candidate as the winner. Among debate watchers, the spin boost
for Kerry's margin was 21 points after the first debate and 15 points
after the second one.

Given the perceptions of Kerry's success so far, a majority of
Americans, 54%, expect that Kerry will also win the next debate, while
36% expect that Bush will.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,015 national
adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 9-10, 2004. For results based
on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence
that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the 484 national adults in the Form A
half-sample and 531 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the
maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 793
survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004
general election, according to a series of questions measuring current
voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the
total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the
margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely
voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely
voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 941 registered voters, the
maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the
findings of public opinion polls.

2. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held
today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic
candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates,
and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you
vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and
Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent
candidates]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and
Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and
Camejo, the independents]?

3. (Asked of Nader voters) If Ralph Nader is not on the ballot
in your state on Election Day, would you vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry and
Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

3A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and
Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

Re-calculated two-candidate race: (Q.2/2A/3/3A)