Future chemical feedstock trends
As this chart shows, since shale gas started to become available in the US around 2008-2009, natural gas prices have fallen, then remained stable there. US prices have become disconnected from the oil price, unlike in Europe where prices have remained more tied to oil prices. This is obvious from the sharp rise in UK prices in recent months as the oil price has rallied. Cheaper natural gas means cheaper ethane for US chemical producers, giving them an advantage.


Forward planning for petrochemical production and pricing has become increasingly difficult as oil, and therefore naphtha, prices have become incredibly volatile. With predictions in a range of $35-95/bbl for crude oil in 2011 (see ICIS Chemical Business, 3 January 2011, page 24) and up to $200/bbl in the long term, we are unlikely to experience a lessening of this phenomenon. This is driving the search for less volatile, alternative feedstocks.


http://www.icis.com/Articles/2011/01/06/9423606/future-chemical-feedstock-trends.html
http://konfuzij.livejournal.com/545008.html