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Пишет DK ([info]k_d_s)
@ 2020-04-11 00:50:00


Previous Entry  Add to memories!  Tell a Friend!  Next Entry
Настроение: sleepy
Музыка:Interview mit dem Entwickler des ersten Coronavirus-Immuntests
Entry tags:corona, interview, oesterreich, usa

Florian Krammer, PhD, Discusses New Coronavirus Serological Assay
The PCR [polymerase chain reaction] or nucleic-acid based test is to figure out if somebody is acutely infected with the virus. The serological test is to figure out if somebody had been infected with the virus, it's not for finding acute infections.

You might, during an acute infection, already see some antibody, but typically that comes later.

It has a lot of uses in research. We can use it to better understand the antibody response and the dynamics. We can now perform serosurveys to figure out how widespread spread the virus actually is. People who might not have symptoms might still produce an immune response. Those are the research reasons for doing this. Now, there's 2 more practical reasons.

There is a large initiative to look for people who seroconverted, and then ask them to donate plasma and maybe use that as a therapeutic. This has been done in China to a certain degree and in Italy.

There are no clinical trials that show that this is effective, but there's anecdotal evidence that it might work. China is also doing a clinical trial. If you can screen people and look who has a strong immune response, you can identify them and ask them to donate. You could also do that with a neutralization assay, but that takes a few days and you need to do that at biosafety level 3. While the ELISA assay that we developed is very easy to do—there's no infectious virus involved at all, and the output is relatively high. With 1 operator, the current setup that he has, you can run a few thousand samples per week.

Everybody's at home, self-quarantining. If you would know who was already exposed and infected and who has an immune response, we might be able to let these people go back to work. Because if they're immune, and they can't get infected anymore, they're no danger for others because they're not able to spread the virus on anymore. That is more hypothetical. There's no approved use of that assay for that purpose right now. But that's something that we may want to think about when we think about restarting the economy.

A lot of health care workers also probably got exposed early in the game, and they might now be immune. Knowing that you're immune might be some comfort if you have to deal with COVID-19 patients.



https://youtu.be/6DgVNvFPUdk



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[info]kaledin
2020-04-11 05:54 (ссылка)
Ну, там есть неприятная вещь, про которую пока стараются не говорить. Неочевидно, что к нему вырабатывается стойкий иммунитет...

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[info]k_d_s
2020-04-11 11:28 (ссылка)
>вырабатывается стойкий иммунитет...

Ну да, он говорит "sehr unwahrscheinlich",
когда речь идет о повторном заражении,
хотя это совсем неочевидно, увы.

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(Анонимно)
2020-04-13 01:52 (ссылка)
https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/07/covid-19-eine-zwischenbilanz-oder-eine-analyse-der-moral-der-medizinischen-fakten-sowie-der-aktuellen-und-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-politischen-entscheidungen/

вы по-немецки же понимаете, да?

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[info]k_d_s
2020-04-13 02:13 (ссылка)
Спасибо, почитаю.

>Zudem: wenn es in einem Jahr in der Schweiz angeblich 1600 Influenza-Tote gab, so sprechen wir über 1600 Tote über 12 Monate – ohne präventive Massnahmen. Bei COVID-19 gab es jedoch 600 Tote in 1(!) Monat und das trotz massiver Gegenmassnahmen. Radikale Gegenmassnahmen können die Verbreitung von COVID-19 um 90% senken – man kann sich also vorstellen, welches Szenario ohne Gegenmassnahmen herrschen würde.

Невесело, однако.

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(Анонимно)
2020-04-13 10:52 (ссылка)
мне ещё нравится другое

>Also: look for the hard numbers on «influenza»! You won't find any. What you will find are estimates: approx. 1000 or 1600 in Switzerland; about 8000 in Italy; approx. 20,000 in Germany. An FDA study (US Food and Drug Administration) examined how many of the 48,000 influenza deaths in one year in the United States really died from classic influenza pneumonia. Result: all possible clinical pictures were subsumed under "death from pneumonia", e.g. including pneumonia in a newborn who has amniotic fluid aspirated into the lungs at birth. In this analysis, the number of effectively "died from influenza" patients dropped dramatically below 10,000.

In Switzerland, too, we do not know the exact number of patients who die from influenza each year. And this despite dozens of massively overpriced data acquisition systems; despite senseless double and triple data entry by clinics, health insurance companies and health directors; despite a senseless and overpriced DRG system that only produces nonsense. We cannot even provide the exact number of hospitalized influenza patients per month! But waste millions and billions on overpriced and counterproductive IT projects.

Based on the current state of knowledge, one cannot generally speak of an “ordinary flu”.


и для любителей подрочить на графики:

>Due to the current, inadequate level of knowledge, the figures for March also say nothing at all. We can get off lightly or experience a disaster. Rigid measures mean that the curve of the sick is flatter. But it's not just about the height of the curve, it's also about the area under the curve and this ultimately represents the number of deaths.

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(Анонимно)
2020-04-13 11:11 (ссылка)
(гуглоперевод с немецкого на английский)

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[info]k_d_s
2020-04-13 11:41 (ссылка)
Там еще ссылка на интервью с ним есть:

https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/09/covid-19-zwischenbilanz-oder-eine-analyse-der-moral-der-medizinischen-fakten-sowie-der-aktuellen-und-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-politischen-entscheidungen-das-interview/

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(Анонимно)
2020-04-13 22:05 (ссылка)
Science & Research • April 9, 2020
COVID-19 - Interim assessment or an analysis of morals, medical facts, as well as current and future political decisions - THE INTERVIEW

RESEARCH / MEDICINE / POLITICS ¦ David Aebischer ¦

The guest commentary and publication of the manuscript "COVID-19 - an interim assessment or an analysis of morals, medical facts, and current and future political decisions" by Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt from 7.4.2020 in our newspaper has received huge international attention and approval.

In the first two days, the article had already been read over 350,000 times and shared a thousand times. We therefore have with Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt asked and asked 10 questions that are currently in the room.

To comment: COVID-19 - an interim assessment or an analysis of morality, medical facts, as well as current and future political decisions (DMZ 07.04.2020)

David Aebischer (D.A.): What triggered the article in the Mittelländische, which reactions have reached you personally?

Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: Since the publication of the manuscript with you, I have been flooded with replicas: via sms, Whatsapp, email or by phone. Many have distributed the manuscript further. So far I have not received any negative comments.

The basic mood of the answers: a sigh of relief! I am amazed that many readers wrote that they had first learned what the facts about this pandemic were! And of course people expect answers from our government: what was done after December 31, when the Chinese government informed WHO? And what was done after January 30, when WHO officially designated this event worldwide as a “public health emergency of international concern” and warned accordingly?

Many are concerned about the possible economic consequences of this lock-down. On the one hand, they disagree with an “opening” that takes no account of possibly new illnesses; on the other hand, they fear financial consequences.

I was surprised to see that many see our democracy in jeopardy - something that we usually accuse other countries of suspecting to restrict civil rights under the guise of fighting the pandemic. A reader became specific when he wrote: “Our government has managed to freeze ourselves all up. News of the crisis is conveyed every evening by the federal daily press conference. Contents: diffuse, incomprehensible, no plan. It is incomprehensible that our press on the one hand praises our government, and on the other hand constantly criticizes other countries that have lower infection rates than we do! Should we be distracted by it? ». Many believed that direct democracy was virtually shut down. My answer was: that was also the purpose of my initiative: to re-launch our direct democracy, which I appreciate very much.

D.A .: You explained in detail what motivated you to write this report. Were you afraid when writing that it could harm you and your reputation?

Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: No. I am not committed to my reputation, but to the facts. In addition, despite all criticism of Switzerland, I am aware that it is possible, in my home country, to say things that may not be popular, but that must be said.

D.A .: The article is largely received very positively, only a few speak in the comments of polemics and emotions in your article. What do you say to these people?

Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: I want to answer here as both a doctor and a citizen. When I no longer feel any emotions in view of the 2,000 hospitalizations and 600 deaths in March alone, with so many patients intubatedly fighting for their lives in the intensive care unit, I immediately quit my job. As for the polemic: with a soft-washed article that only oozes "political correctness" and obscures the facts, nothing is achieved these days. Either I want to achieve something and if I don't, I don't have to write anything.

D.A .: Surely you have already presented media companies who want to jump on your train?

Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: Of course. But no fear. As the German virologist Christian Drosten said, I don't want to become a media or television professor. I like my job too much and it doesn't allow for something like that. It was important to me to toast something.

D.A .: The development and daily news around Covid-19 ensure rapid pace and constantly force statements to be adjusted. In the meantime, are there any points from your report that you need to adjust or add?

Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: The questions that have not yet been answered remain unclear. It is simply not enough time for precise information. The hope remains that things will not turn out as badly as many feared. The most pressing questions are when drug therapy and vaccination are available. There is positive news from around the world regarding any medication - but that will also take time. Antibody diagnostics, which at least identifies those who are no longer contagious but also can no longer be infected, could help more quickly.

D.A .: Some comments also miss tips in dealing with Covid19 and the situation around it. The need for recommendations has never been greater among the population. Can you offer a hand there?

Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: To put it a little pessimistically: since there is no vaccination or medication, the recommendations apply at the time of the Spanish flu - which of course makes you think. After all: several studies unanimously confirm that consistent hand washing with the appropriate disinfectants, which the federal government should finally call, and wearing N95 masks, medical masks and even self-made masks if they consist of 4 layers of paper or 1 Layers of fabric exist that can block 95% to 99% of viruses on surfaces or in the air. According to the Journal of Hospital Infection of February 6, 2020, effective disinfectants are: alcohol 62% to 71%; Hydrogen peroxide 0.5% or sodium hypochlorite 0.1%. I think the easiest thing to do is alcohol disinfection. And keeping a distance is still the same as in the days of the Spanish flu.

D.A .: Now the Federal Council has announced that it will soon (probably especially under pressure from the economy) formulate easing of the lockdown. How do you see the Federal Council's action in this matter?

Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: You will not be able to avoid loosening the economy or not. Life should normalize again. I do not envy the Federal Council in this decision. Mathematical models anticipate that things will not remain without risk until the end of May. Other studies, such as those from Imperial College London or the U.S. Government («U.S. Government COVID-19 Response Plan») speak of up to 18 months. I can't decide that. One thing is certain: every loosening resembles a step into the unknown, which is why every step must be linked to exact monitoring. The decisive factor here is whether the number of hospitalizations increases again after each step or not. The number of positively tested people who have no symptoms does not help us in this situation.

D.A .: What recommendations are you currently giving to the Federal Council?

Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: To give exact information: who has to disinfect with what and when! Masks wear yes or no, when and where! Formulating a clear schedule: what is done and when. The Federal Council can reserve itself in certain circumstances, e.g. a renewed, sudden, marked increase in hospitalizations to change course. But people, as the many answers have shown me, expect a concrete plan. The wheel doesn't have to be reinvented, you just have to be willing to watch what other countries are doing or have done.

D.A .: How do you see the problem of civil disobedience among a great many people in Switzerland?

Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: Civil Disobedience? I don't see him, we are far from it. People will want to know what happened. If and if so, what has been missed. That is their right. And maybe you will want to know how to make provisions in the future. Three biological events of the century (SARS, MERS, COVID-19) in just 17 years should be reason enough to go over the books. The next pandemic is a real possibility. COVID-19 was announced as "soon" in March 2019 and was there 9 months later.



D.A .: Theories and abstruse conspiracy theories around Covid-19 are circulating worldwide. How do you classify the phenomenon and how dangerous is it for society if more and more such theories are spread over and over again? Your personal advice on how to use it?



Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt: A good scientific work is that of Kristian Andersen in “Nature Medicine” that I mentioned in the manuscript. It describes how this pandemic could have arisen. This research must be continued internationally, because emerging viruses can really threaten us. The population must also demand more transparency. It cannot be that research projects are underway that can wipe out half the world's population - whether purely scientifically or not - without these being transparently controlled and regulated in public.





Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul R. Vogt

FMH specialist for general surgery, cardiac and vascular surgery.
Initiator and President of "EurAsia Heart - A Swiss Medical Foundation" (www.eurasiaheart.com)
Swiss, German, Russian and Ukrainian specialist in cardiac and vascular surgery
Consultant for cardiac and vascular surgery, Hirslanden Group, Klinik Im Park, Zurich, Switzerland
Senior Consultant, Clinic for Cardiac and Thoracic Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Zurich, Switzerland

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