Войти в систему

Home
    - Создать дневник
    - Написать в дневник
       - Подробный режим

LJ.Rossia.org
    - Новости сайта
    - Общие настройки
    - Sitemap
    - Оплата
    - ljr-fif

Редактировать...
    - Настройки
    - Список друзей
    - Дневник
    - Картинки
    - Пароль
    - Вид дневника

Сообщества

Настроить S2

Помощь
    - Забыли пароль?
    - FAQ
    - Тех. поддержка



Пишет Misha Verbitsky ([info]tiphareth)
@ 2023-08-24 17:21:00


Previous Entry  Add to memories!  Tell a Friend!  Next Entry
Настроение: sick
Музыка:Handel: Complete Harpsichord Suites
Entry tags:covid

вероятность загнуться от ковида
Кстати, если кто-то не видел табличку по смертности
от ковида в Гонконге, очень поучительно
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13956
age deaths number of casesIFR
0–19   52 6,634,482 0.000006
20–29   65 4,196,212 0.000012
30–39   110   4,199,519 0.000021
40–49   354   4,386,635 0.000065
50–59   1029   3,731,215 0.000221
60–69   2791   3,104,523 0.000719
70–79   5742   1,572,122 0.002922
80–89   16,176     947,488 0.009631

для тех, кто меньше 50, вероятность загнуться меньше
1 на 10,000, то есть %0.01, для тех, кто младше 20, вообще более-менее ноль

Привет



(Читать комментарии) - (Добавить комментарий)

Re: Это массовая формация.
[info]comment
2023-08-26 17:47 (ссылка)
Throughout the crisis, any patient who tested positive upon admission was considered a COVID-19 patient, regardless of whether they had COVID-19 symptoms or, let’s say, a broken leg. At a certain point, the Scottish government changed its methodology and began counting someone as a coronavirus patient only if they tested positive and were also admitted with COVID-19 symptoms. The result? They were left with 13 percent of the original number of COVID-19 patients.5
This was not the only factor that distorted hospital data. In the spring of 2021, Jeroen Bossaert of the Flemish newspaper Het Laatste Nieuws published one of the few thorough pieces of investigative journalism of the entire coronavirus crisis. Bossaert exposed that hospitals and other healthcare institutions had artificially increased the number of deaths and COVID-19 hospitalizations for financial gain.6 This in itself is not surprising, since hospitals have been using such methods for a long time. What was surprising is that, during the coronavirus crisis, people refused to acknowledge that profit motives played a role and had an impact on the data. The entire healthcare sector was suddenly graced with quasi-sanctity. This, despite the fact that prior to the coronavirus crisis, many people critiqued and complained about the system of for-profit healthcare and Big Pharma. (See, for example, Deadly Medicines and Organised Crime by Peter Gøtzsche.7)
Furthermore, the data around death counts—perhaps the most elementary variable among all the data—proved to be anything but unambiguous. About 95 percent of registered COVID-19 deaths showed one or more underlying conditions. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), barely 6 percent of deaths account for those whose only condition was COVID-19.8 In addition, coronavirus victims were usually of advanced age, on average eighty-three years old in Belgium during the first wave, slightly older than the average life expectancy. It’s a good question: How do you determine who dies “from” COVID-19? If someone who is old and in poor health “gets the coronavirus” and dies, did that person then die “from” the virus? Did the last drop in the bucket cause it to spill over more so than the first?

(Ответить) (Уровень выше) (Ветвь дискуссии)

Re: Это массовая формация.
[info]comment
2023-08-26 17:51 (ссылка)
well, I'm from Belgium, as you said. I'm a professor at in clinical psychology at Ghent University. I also have a master's in statistics. And that's actually how. Statistics and statistics. Yes. Yeah, I did a PhD on methodological problems in academic research. I started my PhD in 2003 when it became clear that up to 85% of the academic papers are seriously flawed. That's what my PhD was all about. And then when the Corona crisis started, I immediately started to study the statistics a little bit, and I immediately got the impression that the mathematical models and statistics that were used dramatically over rated, the dangerousness of the virus. And then in my opinion, a few months later, by the end of May 2020, this was actually proven beyond doubt. At that moment that the initial mathematical models on which the corona measures were based, the models issued by Imperial College predicted that by the end of May 2020, in a country in a small country such as Sweden, about 60,000 people would die if the country didn't go into lockdown and Sweden didn't go into lockdown and only 6000 people died. And at that moment, for me, in the first week of the Corona crisis, I published two opinion papers in which I tried to warn people that there was something dangerous out there, and I wasn't referring to the virus. The title of the first paper was The Fear of the virus is more dangerous than the virus itself. And strangely enough, I tried to show people in what way the statistics were wrong, but nobody really seemed to care about it. And everybody continued to buy into the narrative.
 
And even when by the end of May 2020, it was proven beyond the shade of a doubt that the mathematical models had been dramatically wrong. The narrative continued and the society continued to behave as if the mathematical models had been right.
And

(Ответить) (Уровень выше) (Ветвь дискуссии)

Re: Это массовая формация.
(Анонимно)
2023-08-26 19:03 (ссылка)
there's no virus.

> phd
kill, kill, kill

(Ответить) (Уровень выше)

Re: Это массовая формация.
(Анонимно)
2023-08-26 19:04 (ссылка)
long bullshit text turns off critical thinking. viruses don't exist

(Ответить) (Уровень выше)


(Читать комментарии) -