tiphareth: вероятность загнуться от ковида

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Entry tags:	covid

вероятность загнуться от ковида
Кстати, если кто-то не видел табличку по смертности
от ковида в Гонконге, очень поучительно
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13956

age deaths number of cases IFR

0–19   52 6,634,482 0.000006

20–29   65 4,196,212 0.000012

30–39   110   4,199,519 0.000021

40–49   354   4,386,635 0.000065

50–59   1029   3,731,215 0.000221

60–69   2791   3,104,523 0.000719

70–79   5742   1,572,122 0.002922

80–89   16,176     947,488 0.009631

для тех, кто меньше 50, вероятность загнуться меньше
1 на 10,000, то есть %0.01, для тех, кто младше 20, вообще более-менее ноль

Привет

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Re: Это массовая формация.

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2023-08-26 17:51 (ссылка)

well, I'm from Belgium, as you said. I'm a professor at in clinical psychology at Ghent University. I also have a master's in statistics. And that's actually how. Statistics and statistics. Yes. Yeah, I did a PhD on methodological problems in academic research. I started my PhD in 2003 when it became clear that up to 85% of the academic papers are seriously flawed. That's what my PhD was all about. And then when the Corona crisis started, I immediately started to study the statistics a little bit, and I immediately got the impression that the mathematical models and statistics that were used dramatically over rated, the dangerousness of the virus. And then in my opinion, a few months later, by the end of May 2020, this was actually proven beyond doubt. At that moment that the initial mathematical models on which the corona measures were based, the models issued by Imperial College predicted that by the end of May 2020, in a country in a small country such as Sweden, about 60,000 people would die if the country didn't go into lockdown and Sweden didn't go into lockdown and only 6000 people died. And at that moment, for me, in the first week of the Corona crisis, I published two opinion papers in which I tried to warn people that there was something dangerous out there, and I wasn't referring to the virus. The title of the first paper was The Fear of the virus is more dangerous than the virus itself. And strangely enough, I tried to show people in what way the statistics were wrong, but nobody really seemed to care about it. And everybody continued to buy into the narrative.

And even when by the end of May 2020, it was proven beyond the shade of a doubt that the mathematical models had been dramatically wrong. The narrative continued and the society continued to behave as if the mathematical models had been right.
And

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	Re: Это массовая формация. (Анонимно) 2023-08-26 19:03 (ссылка)
	there's no virus. > phd kill, kill, kill (Ответить) (Уровень выше)

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