nancygold: But you can't play D&D alone!111

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2025-10-04 02:31 (ссылка)

>without sampling

But you don't have any kind of model to begin with, since made up boardgame rules don't model anything. You are synthesizing or generating at best. If you need to pretend that you are some "probability assesser" as part of your lore, to feel better, do as you please.

You can also assess probability of thing occurring analytically, without sampling. That might involve actually knowing real (matematical) statistics.

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nancygold
2025-10-05 12:12 (ссылка)

D&D isn't board game (other RPGs are neither).
RPG rules are stated in natural language.
So you in fact do language modelling to play it.
That is why we throw d20 all the time.

I.e. you model town's response to a threat of Tarrasque attack.
You first isolate most probable verbs.
Then roll d20 to pick one and interpret it.
And then roll d20 oracle with likelihood of that response taking effect.
You can further detail it into multiple factors,
and roll oracle for each, or verb prompt.

It all depends what scenario you're playing out.

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